Survey of 800 Likely Voters
April 18-19, 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R) vs.
Barack Obama (D)
Rudy Giuliani (R) 46%
Barack Obama (D) 43%
Fred Thompson (R) vs.
Barack Obama (D)
Fred Thompson (R) 37%
Barack Obama (D) 47%
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Election 2008: Giuliani (R) 46% Obama (D) 43%

Democrat Barack Obama

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) clinging to a narrow lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) in an early 2008 Presidential trial heat. Obama, however, enjoys a ten-point lead over former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R).

Giuliani, the GOP frontrunner, leads Obama 46% to 43%. A month ago, Giuliani led the Illinois Senator by just a single point. Back-to-back months in toss-up status represents a significant improvement for Obama—in December he trailed Giuliani by 11.

Since last month, Obama has slightly increased his advantage with women. He now leads by 11 points among that group. But Giuliani's advantage with men has meanwhile increased to 20 points. Obama enjoys a 14-point edge with unaffiliated voters in the current poll, but loses a fourth of Democrats to Giuliani. (More Below)


With the exception of Giuliani, Obama now leads in match-ups with every GOP candidate, including Senator John McCain.

A separate survey shows that 33% of voters would definitely support Obama if he is on the 2008 ballot. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the same about Giuliani.

Obama has also gained ground recently in his quest for the Democratic nomination. He has been consistently in second place, trailing only New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Polling for the week ending April 19, 2007 found Obama and Clinton tied at 32%. Clinton is also essentially tied with Giuliani. Only Senator John Edwards has managed to carve out a lead over Giuliani.

When Fred Thompson is mentioned as the GOP candidate, Obama’s vote total inches up to 47%. Thompson is ten-points behind at 37%. That’s little changed from a month ago when Obama led 49% to 37%.

Viewed favorably by 35% of Likely Voters across the nation, Thompson is still unknown to more than a third of likely voters. Nineteen percent (19%) say they’d definitely vote for Thompson if he’s on the ballot. Twenty-nine percent (29%) would definitely vote against.

Thompson is a former movie star turned Senator turned TV star. He has not announced a campaign for the White House but speculation about his candidacy vaulted him immediately to the number three spot among Republicans.

Senator Obama is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by 34%. He remains the best-liked Democratic candidate, although Senator Edwards is not far behind (see summary of favorables, ideological perceptions, and general election match-ups for all Democrats seeking the White House).

Mayor Giuliani, regaining some of his lost ground, is now viewed favorably by 62%, unfavorably by 32%. In late March, Rasmussen Reports showed his favorable number at 58%. It had topped 70% in December (see history).

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican candidates. Also available are continuously updated ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists and a daily update of the President’s Job Approval.

New poll results for the Democratic nomination are released every Monday. Republican nomination results are released every Tuesday.

Historical data available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

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Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


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