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Three Day Presidential Tracking Data

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Welcome

 

At Rasmussen Reports we interview 1,000 Likely Voters every single night. Data on this page reflects a three-day rolling average sample of 3,000 Likely Voters spread equally over the preceding three nights. Our surveys were of 500 Likely Voters each night prior to September 1, 2004.

The three-day rolling average is useful in spotting possible trends and measuring immediate reaction to events in the news.  However, sometimes it is difficult to determine whether movement is really a trend or mere statistical noise. The best approach is to use the information on this page in conjunction with the seven-day rolling average data provided separately.

For data from April 16 to June 30, click here.  July 1 - August 31, click here

Data prior to April 16 is also available.

Survey of 3,000 Likely Voters over preceding 3 nights (1,500 prior to September 1). This table updated daily

RR

Presidential Tracking

(no leaners)

Presidential Tracking

(with leaners)

Core Support

("Certain" Voters)

Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry
Today 48.8 47.4 B + 1.4 49.4 48.8 B + 0.6 44.4 45.2
Oct 31 48.1 47.1 B + 1.0 48.8 48.2 B + 0.6 45.5 43.9
Oct 30 47.9 47.1 B + 0.8 48.8 48.3 B + 0.5 44.6 43.3
Oct 29 48.7 46.7 B + 2.0 49.5 47.9 B + 1.6 45.4 42.3
Oct 28 48.9 46.9 B + 2.0 49.7 48.1 B + 1.6 45.2 42.2
Oct 27 48.8 47.0 B + 1.8 49.5 48.1 B + 1.4 45.6 42.1
Oct 26 47.8 47.8 Even 48.7 48.8 K + 0.1 44.5 42.8
Oct 25 46.4 48.4 K + 2.0 47.8 49.4 K + 1.6 43.4 43.5
Oct 24 47.6 47.2 B + 0.4 49.1 48.5 B + 0.6 44.8 41.9
Oct 23 48.0 46.7 B + 1.3 49.3 48.0 B + 1.3 44.6 41.2
Oct 22 49.1 45.9 B + 3.2 50.1 47.2 B + 2.9 45.2 39.7
Oct 21 48.8 46.2 B + 2.6 49.6 47.5 B + 2.1 44.3 41.0
Oct 20 48.3 46.9 B + 1.4 49.3 48.0 B + 1.3 43.6 41.7
Oct 19 48.2 46.6 B + 1.6 49.5 47.6 B + 1.9 44.0 41.5
Oct 18 47.5 47.3 B + 0.2 48.8 48.3 B + 0.5 43.7 41.5
Oct 17 48.5 46.4 B + 2.1 49.5 47.5 B + 2.0 44.6 40.7
Oct 16 48.3 46.2 B + 2.1 49.2 47.6 B + 1.6 44.1 40.9
Oct 15 49.0 45.5 B + 3.5 50.1 46.9 B + 3.2 44.0 40.4
Oct 14 48.1 45.9 B + 2.2 49.5 47.6 B + 1.9 43.5 40.4
Oct 13 47.6 46.2 B + 1.4 49.0 47.9 B + 1.1 42.9 40.1
Oct 12 47.4 45.8 B + 1.6 48.5 47.5 B + 1.0 42.6 39.5
Oct 11 49.0 45.4 B + 3.6 49.8 46.8 B + 3.0 44.1 39.2
Oct 10 49.5 45.5 B + 4.0 50.4 46.7 B + 3.7 45.0 39.5
Oct 9 49.6 45.9 B + 3.7 50.7 47.1 B + 3.6 44.6 40.3
Oct 8 48.4 46.1 B + 2.3 49.6 47.7 B + 1.9 43.3 40.8
Oct 7 47.8 46.7 B + 1.1 49.1 48.1 B + 1.0 42.5 41.0
Oct 6 47.2 46.9 B + 0.3 48.4 48.3 B + 0.1 42.7 40.5
Oct 5 47.9 47.0 B + 0.9 48.9 47.8 B + 1.1 43.1 40.3
Oct 4 48.6 46.1 B + 2.5 49.3 47.5 B + 1.8 44.0 39.9
Oct 3 49.0 45.4 B + 3.6 49.6 47.0 B + 2.6 44.0 39.5
Oct 2 48.6 45.6 B + 3.0 49.3 47.7 B + 1.6 43.8 40.2
Oct 1 48.7 45.3 B + 3.4 49.6 47.0 B + 2.6 43.7 39.6
Sept 30 48.5 46.1 B + 2.4 49.5 47.8 B + 1.7 43.6 39.7
Sept 29 49.1 45.3 B + 3.8 50.3 46.6 B + 3.7 43.7 38.8
Sept 28 47.9 46.3 B + 1.6 49.3 47.5 B + 1.8 42.4 38.8
Sept 27 47.8 46.1 B + 1.7 49.2 47.0 B + 2.2 42.7 38.8
Sept 26 47.2 46.5 B + 0.7 48.9 48.0 B + 0.9 42.8 39.3
Sept 25 47.9 46.3 B + 1.6 49.4 47.6 B + 1.8 44.0 39.7
Sept 24 47.4 46.5 B + 0.9 49.1 47.8 B + 1.3 43.1 39.8
Sept 23 49.0 45.4 B + 3.6 50.3 46.5 B + 3.8 44.0 38.7
Sept 22 48.8 44.8 B + 4.0 50.2 46.0 B + 4.2 43.2 38.7
Sept 21 48.3 45.5 B + 2.8 49.4 47.2 B + 2.2 43.0 39.7
Sept 20 48.1 45.3 B + 2.8 49.4 47.3 B + 2.1 42.6 39.4
Sept 19 47.8 46.1 B + 1.7 49.3 48.4 B + 0.9 42.7 39.4
Sept 18 49.4 44.8 B + 4.6 50.9 46.8 B + 4.1 44.7 38.1
Sept 17 49.2 45.2 B + 4.0 50.4 47.0 B + 3.4 44.4 38.0
Sept 16 49.3 44.7 B + 4.6 50.7 46.4 B + 4.3 43.8 38.0
Sept 15 47.3 46.4 B + 0.8 48.7 48.3 B + 0.4 41.5 39.3
Sept 14 47.1 46.5 B + 0.6 48.5 48.1 B + 0.4 41.6 39.1
Sept 13 47.2 46.4 B + 0.8 48.3 48.0 B + 0.3 41.9 38.5
Sept 12 48.3 45.2 B + 3.1 49.3 46.8 B + 2.5 41.5 37.4
Sept 11 47.5 46.1 B + 1.4 48.5 47.7 B + 0.8 41.3 39.4
Sept 10 47.8 46.2 B + 1.6 49.0 47.7 B + 1.3 42.0 40.1
Sept 9 47.5 46.8 B + 0.7 49.1 48.1 B + 1.0 42.3 40.6
Sept 8 48.2 46.5 B + 1.7 49.8 47.7 B + 2.1 42.9 40.1
Sept 7 47.3 47.3 Tie 48.8 48.8 Tie 42.3 39.8
Sept 6 47.6 46.5 B + 1.1 49.2 48.0 B + 1.2 43.2 39.6
Sept 5 47.6 46.4 B + 1.2 49.1 48.4 B + 0.7 43.2 39.5
Sept 4 49.1 44.7 B + 4.4 50.9 46.7 B + 4.2 44.3 39.1
Sept 3 49 45 B + 4 50 48 B + 2 44 39
Sept 2 49 45 B + 4 51 47 B + 4 44 39
Sept 1 47 47 Tie 49 48 B + 1 42 40
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