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Seven Day Presidential Tracking Data

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Welcome

 

At Rasmussen Reports we interview 1,000 Likely Voters every single night. Data on this page reflects a seven-day rolling average sample of 7,000 Likely Voters spread equally over the preceding seven nights. Our surveys were of 500 Likely Voters each night prior to September 1, 2004.

This seven-day sample reduces the random variation that can come from smaller sample sizes and polling on different days of the week.

The seven day rolling average is useful in cutting through the statistical noise of smaller samples and measuring the overall flow of the campaign. However, it lags behind other indicators in measuring reaction to breaking news. Seven day rolling average data is also available for the President's Job Approval Ratings and the Generic Congressional Ballot. Three day rolling average information is also available for the Presidential Race, the President's Job Approval, and the Generic Congressional Ballot.

For data from prior to June 30, click here.  July 1 - August 31, click here.

Survey of 7,000 Likely Voters over preceding 7 nights (3,500 prior to September 1). This table updated daily

RR

Presidential Tracking

(no leaners)

Presidential Tracking

(with leaners)

Core Support

("Certain" Voters)

Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry
Today 48.3 47.4 B + 0.9 49.1 48.5 B + 0.6 45.1 43.4
Oct 31 48.1 47.4 B + 0.7 48.9 48.5 B + 0.4 45.0 43.1
Oct 30 47.9 47.5 B + 0.4 48.8 48.6 B + 0.2 44.7 43.0
Oct 29 48.0 47.4 B + 0.6 49.0 48.5 B + 0.5 44.7 42.7
Oct 28 48.1 47.3 B + 0.8 49.2 48.5 B + 0.7 44.8 42.2
Oct 27 48.1 47.2 B + 0.9 49.1 48.3 B + 0.8 44.8 42.0
Oct 26 48.1 47.0 B + 1.1 49.2 48.2 B + 1.0 44.5 41.6
Oct 25 48.0 47.0 B + 1.0 49.1 48.2 B + 0.9 44.3 41.7
Oct 24 47.9 47.1 B + 0.8 49.1 48.3 B + 0.8 44.0 41.8
Oct 23 48.4 46.5 B + 1.9 49.6 47.7 B + 1.9 44.3 41.1
Oct 22 48.5 46.5 B + 2.0 49.5 47.7 B + 1.8 44.6 40.8
Oct 21 48.3 46.6 B + 1.7 49.3 47.8 B + 1.5 44.0 41.2
Oct 20 48.5 46.3 B + 2.2 49.5 47.5 B + 2.0 44.1 41.0
Oct 19 48.5 46.3 B + 2.2 49.6 47.5 B + 2.1 44.1 41.1
Oct 18 48.0 46.5 B + 1.5 49.3 47.8 B + 1.5 43.7 40.9
Oct 17 48.1 46.1 B + 2.0 49.3 47.5 B + 1.8 43.7 40.4
Oct 16 48.1 45.9 B + 2.2 49.2 47.4 B + 1.8 43.6 40.2
Oct 15 48.4 45.8 B + 2.6 49.4 47.4 B + 2.0 43.6 39.9
Oct 14 48.4 45.8 B + 2.6 49.5 47.3 B + 2.2 43.6 39.9
Oct 13 48.4 46.0 B + 2.4 49.6 47.5 B + 2.1 43.4 40.1
Oct 12 47.9 46.2 B + 1.7 49.0 47.9 B + 1.1 43.0 40.1
Oct 11 48.7 46.0 B + 2.7 49.7 47.3 B + 2.4 43.7 40.0
Oct 10 48.7 46.1 B + 2.6 49.7 47.3 B + 2.4 43.9 40.1
Oct 9 48.5 46.5 B + 2.0 49.5 47.7 B + 1.8 43.6 40.3
Oct 8 48.4 46.3 B + 2.1 49.5 47.6 B + 1.9 43.6 40.4
Oct 7 48.3 46.1 B + 2.2 49.4 47.5 B + 1.9 43.4 40.2
Oct 6 48.0 46.3 B + 1.7 48.9 47.9 B + 1.0 43.2 40.3
Oct 5 48.5 46.0 B + 2.5 49.4 47.4 B + 2.0 43.7 40.1
Oct 4 48.6 45.8 B + 2.8 49.5 47.4 B + 2.1 43.7 39.6
Oct 3 48.8 45.6 B + 3.2 49.7 47.1 B + 2.6 43.5 39.5
Oct 2 48.5 45.7 B + 2.8 49.6 47.3 B + 2.3 43.3 39.4
Oct 1 48.4 45.7 B + 2.7 49.6 47.1 B + 2.5 43.3 39.0
Sept 30 48.0 46.1 B + 1.9 49.4 47.5 B + 1.9 43.1 39.5
Sept 29 48.1 46.1 B + 2.0 49.6 47.4 B + 2.2 43.5 39.1
Sept 28 47.9 46.2 B + 1.7 49.4 47.4 B + 2.0 43.1 39.1
Sept 27 48.2 45.9 B + 2.3 49.6 47.0 B + 2.6 43.3 39.1
Sept 26 48.1 45.8 B + 2.3 49.6 47.1 B + 2.5 43.4 39.1
Sept 25 48.1 45.8 B + 2.3 49.5 47.2 B + 2.3 43.3 39.5
Sept 24 48.3 45.5 B + 2.8 49.7 47.1 B + 2.6 43.2 39.4
Sept 23 48.4 45.7 B + 2.7 49.8 47.2 B + 2.6 43.3 39.2
Sept 22 48.8 45.1 B + 3.7 50.2 46.8 B + 3.4 43.6 38.8
Sept 21 48.9 45.0 B + 3.9 50.2 46.8 B + 3.4 43.7 38.7
Sept 20 48.5 45.4 B + 3.1 49.9 47.2 B + 2.7 43.3 38.8
Sept 19 48.3 45.7 B + 2.6 49.7 47.6 B + 2.1 43.1 39.0
Sept 18 48.7 45.3 B + 3.4 50.1 47.0 B + 3.1 43.5 38.3
Sept 17 48.4 45.7 B + 2.7 49.7 47.3 B + 2.4 43.2 38.4
Sept 16 48.8 45.1 B + 3.7 50.0 46.8 B + 3.2 43.0 38.1
Sept 15 47.6 46.0 B + 1.6 48.8 47.6 B + 1.2 41.6 38.9
Sept 14 47.5 46.3 B + 1.2 48.7 47.9 B + 0.8 41.8 39.3
Sept 13 47.6 46.2 B + 1.4 48.9 47.8 B + 1.1 41.9 39.3
Sept 12 47.9 46.1 B + 1.8 49.2 47.5 B + 1.7 42.2 39.3
Sept 11 47.5 46.7 B + 0.8 48.7 48.2 B + 0.5 42.0 40.1
Sept 10 47.7 46.4 B + 1.3 49.2 47.9 B + 1.3 42.4 39.9
Sept 9 47.6 46.6 B + 1.0 49.1 48.2 B + 0.9 42.8 40.1
Sept 8 48.1 46.1 B + 2.0 49.7 47.8 B + 1.9 43.3 39.6
Sept 7 48.1 46.1 B + 2.0 49.8 47.8 B + 2.0 43.2 39.5
Sept 6 48.2 46.0 B + 2.2 49.8 47.7 B + 2.1 43.5 39.5
Sept 5 47.9 46.1 B + 1.8 49.5 47.9 B + 1.6 43.2 39.6
Sept 4 48.5 45.4 B + 3.1 50.0 47.2 B + 2.8 43.5 39.4
Sept 3 48.5 45.7 B + 2.8 49.7 47.5 B + 2.2 43.2 39.0
Sept 2 48.1 45.5 B + 2.6 49.6 47.1 B + 2.5 42.5 38.5
Sept 1 47.5 46.0 B + 1.5 48.7 47.5 B + 1.2 41.4 38.8
Copyright 2005 Rasmussen Reports