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State by State Bush vs. Kerry

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Survey of 30,000 Likely Voters

May 1 - 31; May 16 - June 15; June 1 - 30, 2004; June 16-July 15                                 

RR

June 16-July 15 June 1 - June 30 May 16 - June 15 May 1 - May 31
Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry Spread Bush Kerry Spread
Alabama 53 40 B + 13 52 38 B + 14 58 35 B + 23 57 36 B + 21
Arkansas 45 46 K + 1 45 46 K + 1 48 43 B + 5 48 43 B + 5
California 39 53 K + 14 38 52 K + 14 43 49 K +6 41 49 K + 8
Georgia 57 38 B + 19 52 41 B + 11 51 41 B + 10 51 39 B + 12
Florida 43 47 K + 4 43 48 K + 5 45 48 K + 3 46 46 Tie
Illinois 37 54 K + 17 37 53 K + 16 38 50 K + 12 38 54 K + 16
Iowa 45 47 K + 2 44 48 K + 4 41 48 K + 7 41 49 K + 8
Maine 42 49 K + 7 45 46 K + 1 41 49 K + 8 35 54 K + 19
Massachusetts 31 60 K + 29 31 60 K +29            
Michigan 43 49 K + 6 44 46 K + 2 42 46 K + 4 41 47 K + 6
Minnesota 44 51 K + 7 41 50 K + 9 40 49 K + 9 43 48 K + 5
Missouri 50 44 B + 6 48 44 B + 4 45 43 B + 2 44 43 B + 1
New Jersey 41 50 K + 9 41 51 K + 10 40 51 K + 11 39 51 K + 12
New York 35 54 K + 19 30 58 K + 28 31 59 K + 28 34 57 K + 23
N. Carolina 49 43 B + 6 49 42 B + 7 49 43 B + 6 48 44 B + 4
Ohio 44 46 K + 2 46 42 B + 4 46 43 B + 3 46 44 B + 2
Oklahoma 64 29 B + 35 63 31 B + 32 59 34 B + 25 58 34 B + 24
Oregon 41 49 K + 8 42 50 K + 8 45 47 K + 2 46 45 B + 1
Pennsylvania 44 47 K + 3 43 48 K + 5 45 47 K + 2 45 44 B + 1
S. Carolina 54 39 B + 15 53 36 B + 17 50 37 B + 13 49 39 B + 10
Texas 56 37 B + 19 55 37 B + 18 54 39 B + 15 55 38 B + 17
Virginia 49 48 B + 1 48 45 B + 3 48 44 B + 4 47 45 B + 2
   
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