| Survey of 500 Likely Voters March 14-16, 2004 | Michigan: Kerry 48% Bush 44% | |||||||||||||||||
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March 18, 2004--In
Michigan, Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush
48% to 44% as the election season begins. That result is within the
survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of error and suggests that Michigan may
again be competitive in the Electoral College showdown. Four years ago, Bush lost Michigan to Al Gore by five percentage points. Currently, Kerry leads by six points among women voters in Michigan while the candidates are tied among men. Bush leads among Michigan's Investor Class 52% to 45% while Kerry leads among non-Investors 50% to 37%.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of all Michigan voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Michigan voters give the President good or excellent ratings for his handling of the economy. Eighteen percent (18%) say he is doing a fair job in this area while 42% say poor. When it comes to National Defense and the War on Terror, 45% give the President good or excellent marks, 18% say fair, and 36% poor. By a 53% to 33% margin, Michigan voters say they trust President Bush more than Senator Kerry on issues of national defense and the War on Terror. However, when it comes to managing the economy, the edge goes to Kerry (45% to 41%). Bush is trusted more when it comes to gay marriage and gun control. Kerry is trusted more on creating new jobs. Four years ago, Rasmussen survey data identified Michigan as one of the big three competitive states in the Electoral College battle along with Florida and Pennsylvania. Our analysis suggested that then-Governor Bush had to win just one of those three states to become President... and, of course, he did that by the narrowest of margins in Florida. On a national basis this time around, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Tracking Poll has found Bush and Kerry virtually even for weeks. Our first wave of state-by-state polling is currently being released In California, Kerry leads by Bush by 9. In Florida, it's Kerry 48% Bush 45%. In Ohio, it's Kerry 45% Bush 41%. In Pennsylvania, Kerry leads a statistically insignificant margin, 45% to 44%. The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Michigan was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on March 14-16, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. |
Presidential Tracking Poll--Updated Daily |
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