| Survey of 400 Likely Voters March 1-13, 2004 | Florida: Kerry 48% Bush 45% | |||||||||||||||||
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March 14,
2004--In the state of Florida, a Rasmussen Reports survey finds that
Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush by three
points, 48% to 45%. That lead is well within the survey's five-point
margin of sampling error. Four years ago, Al Gore held a slight lead over then-Governor Bush in the Rasmussen's first Florida survey (also conducted in March). Bush was ahead of Gore for most of the summer, but neither candidate could establish a lead in the fall. One surprise in the current Florida data is that 77% of Kerry voters are certain they will vote for him while only 72% of Bush voters say the same. Nationally, Bush voters are more solid in their support than Kerry voters.
Fifty percent (50%) of Florida voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Another 49% disapprove. In Florida, the candidates are tied among Investors while Kerry leads by eight among non-Investors. The Investor Class is the fastest growing demographic category in the nation. Nationally, Investors are expected to account for roughly 60% of all voters. During Election 2000, Rasmussen conducted Florida surveys seven times between Labor Day and Election Day, the candidates were tied or within two points of each other six out of seven times. The seventh survey, conducted immediately after the first Bush-Gore debate, showed Bush with a 4-point lead. On a national basis this time around, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Tracking Poll has found Bush and Kerry virtually even for weeks. Our first wave of state-by-state polling will be released over the next several weeks. In California, Kerry leads by Bush by 9. In January, Rasmussen Reports survey found the President leading a generic Democrat in Florida by two points. Bush also had a substantial lead over then-front-runner Howard Dean. The telephone survey of 400 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 1 to 13, 2004. Data for Florida voters was obtained as part of a national Presidential Tracking Poll conducted daily by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the full Florida sample is +/- 5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. |
Presidential Tracking Poll--Updated Daily |
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