| Survey of 399 Likely Voters January 2-15, 2004 | Florida: Bush 47% Democrat 45% Bush 53% Dean 38% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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January 17,
2004--Four years after the longest election day in American history, a
Rasmussen Reports survey of Florida's Likely Voters shows that that President Bush
leads a generic Democrat
by just two percentage points, 47% to 45%. However, in the state governed by the President's brother, the President holds a commanding lead over former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, 53% to 38%. National results for Election 2004 are updated daily on this site. The Florida results provide a snapshot of the election that is similar to national polls. If the election were held today, President Bush would be likely to win against any of the Democratic contenders. That is true both nationally and in Florida. However, the data showing an essentially even race between the President and a generic Democrat suggests that the campaign has the potential to become very competitive. The telephone survey of Florida's Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from January 2 to 15, 2004. Data for Florida voters was obtained as part of a national Presidential Tracking Poll. Rasmussen Reports also provides daily updates of national numbers on the Democratic nomination process. Rasmussen Reports currently conducts Election 2004 telephone interviews with 500 Likely Voters nationally every night. The margin of sampling error for the full Florida sample is +/- 5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Rasmussen Reports also measures the economic confidence of Consumers and Investors on a daily basis. In Election 2000, Scott Rasmussen directed seven polls in the state of Florida between Labor Day and Election Day. All seven polls showed that the spread between Bush and Gore was within the survey margin of error. Six of those polls showed the race dead even or with one candidate leading by just one or two points. The survey also found that President Bush's Job Approval ratings are at 54% among Florida voters. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Florida's voters belong to the nation's Investor Class. The Investor Class is the fastest growing demographic category in the nation. The discrepancy between polls comparing Bush to a generic Democrat and those suggesting a specific alternative is the result of several factors. First, the generic ballot enables Democrats to envision their ideal candidate as the President's opponent. This tends to inflate the Democratic vote. Second, the name recognition for individual Democratic candidates is lower than for the President. This tends to decrease the Democratic vote. Third, the war issue is still dividing the Democrats. In addition to our daily political tracking, Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of American consumers and Investors on a daily basis. |
Democratic Party Primary Preferences |
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