| Survey of 445 Likely Voters March 5-11, 2004 | California: Kerry 53% Bush 44% | |||||||||||||||
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March 13,
2004--In the state of California, a Rasmussen Reports survey finds that
Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush by nine
points, 53% to 44%. Those figures are similar to the 53% to 42% victory margin earned by Al Gore in California four years ago. This finding is consistent with other polling data from around the nation showing that in many ways Election 2004 is beginning where Election 2000 ended--in a dead heat. On a national basis, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Tracking Poll has found Bush and Kerry virtually even for weeks. Not only that, the candidates are just three points apart in Florida. Fifty percent (50%) of California voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. Another 50% disapprove. As you would expect, conservative voters in California strongly back the President--81% of conservatives say they will vote for Bush. At the same time, 79% of liberal voters back Senator Kerry. Moderate voters favor Kerry by a 55% to 42% margin. Kerry leads by 4 points among California Investors and by 17 points among non-Investors. The Investor Class is the fastest growing demographic category in the nation. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Bush voters are certain they will vote for the President. Just 71% of Kerry voters are that certain. However, the choice some Kerry voters appear to be weighing is whether to vote for the Democrat or for a third-party option. In January, a Rasmussen Reports survey found the President trailing a generic Democrat by five points. At that time, 51% approved of the President's performance and 47% disapproved. California has been a safe state for Democratic Presidential contenders in recent years. Some analysts speculate that the Recall effort and election of a Republican Governor last year may make the state competitive for the President in 2004. As a practical matter, if the President is competitive in California, he is likely to be leading in a large number of other "Blue States" carried by Al Gore four years ago. In other words, if California is in play this November, the national election will not be close. The telephone survey of 445 Likely Voters in California was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 5 to 11, 2004. Data for California voters was obtained as part of a national Presidential Tracking Poll conducted daily by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the full California sample is +/- 5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. |
Presidential Tracking Poll--Updated Daily |
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