| Survey of 848 Likely Voters January 2-15, 2004 | California: Bush 41% Democrat 46% Bush 46% Dean 44% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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January 17,
2004--As Election 2004 gets under way, a Rasmussen Reports survey of
California voters finds that President Bush trails a generic Democrat
by five percentage points, 46% to 41%. However, in the nation's largest state, the President holds a statistically insignificant lead over former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, 46% to 44%. National results for Election 2004 are updated daily on this site. Among Democratic voters in the California, Howard Dean is currently the top choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Dean attracts support from 30% of California Democrats compared to 13% for retired General Wesley Clark. No other Presidential contender reaches double digits. All data for this survey was obtained prior to the Iowa caucuses. It is likely that the caucus results will have a significant impact on the contest for the Democratic Presidential nomination. California has been a safe state for Democratic Presidential contenders in recent years. Some analysts speculate that the Recall effort and election of a Republican Governor last year may make the state competitive for the President this year. As a practical matter, if the President is competitive in California, he is likely to be leading in a large number of other "Blue States" carried by Al Gore four years ago. In other words, if California is at all close in November, the President is likely to have the overall election wrapped up. The telephone survey of California's Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from January 2 to 15, 2004. Data for California voters was obtained as part of a national Presidential Tracking Poll. Rasmussen Reports also provides daily updates of national numbers on the Democratic nomination process. Rasmussen Reports currently conducts Election 2004 telephone interviews with 500 Likely Voters nationally every night. The margin of sampling error for the full California sample is +/- 4 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. The survey also found that President Bush's Job Approval ratings are at 51% among California voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. Sixty-seven (67%) of California's voters belong to the nation's Investor Class. The Investor Class is the fastest growing demographic category in the nation. The discrepancy between polls comparing Bush to a generic Democrat and those suggesting a specific alternative is the result of several factors. First, the generic ballot enables Democrats to envision their ideal candidate as the President's opponent. This tends to inflate the Democratic vote. Second, the name recognition for individual Democratic candidates is lower than for the President. This tends to decrease the Democratic vote. Third, the war issue is still dividing the Democrats. In addition to our daily political tracking, Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of American consumers and Investors on a daily basis. |
Democratic Party Primary Preferences |
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