| Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters Feb. 19-20, 2004 | Bush vs. Kerry: Second Look | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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February 22,
2004--It's been a month since Massachusetts Senator John Kerry emerged as the
Democrats' front-runner.
His string of Primary and Caucus victories have driven all serious challengers but John Edwards from the race... and the Edwards campaign is in the Hail Mary phase. Still, in many ways, voters across the nation know more about who Kerry is not, rather than who he is. Because he defeated Howard Dean, Kerry was seen as the more moderate Democrat (and the more electable Democrat). Because he is not George W. Bush, he is good enough for most Democrats. Now, as Kerry seeks to be the man who also vanquished John Edwards, he faces another image make-over. Will Kerry suddenly seem more liberal while defeating his more moderate Southern colleague? Ultimately, though, John Kerry will be defined for who he is, not who he has defeated to win the nomination. That will happen over the next 60 or 90 days. By Memorial Day, voters will finally have an impression of who John Kerry is is... and that impression will go a long way towards determining how close the election will be in November. A month ago, we provided a look at voter first impressions of a Bush-Kerry match. Now, a month later, it's interesting to note how public perceptions of John Kerry are already beginning to shift. * Forty-one percent (41%) of all voters now see John Kerry as politically liberal. That's up from 37% a month ago. Thirty-nine percent (39%) see Kerry as a moderate, unchanged from a month ago. * Liberal voters continue to see Kerry as a moderate (59% of self-identified liberals have this view). Only 23% of liberal voters see Kerry as politically liberal. That has not changed in a month. * Fifty-one percent (51%) of American voters now believe their own taxes will go up if John Kerry is elected President. That's an increase of six percentage points from a month ago. * A month ago, just 37% of political moderates believed that John Kerry's election would increase their taxes. That figure has jumped to 55% today. * Among those who identify themselves as somewhat conservative, 63% now believe a Kerry win would lead to a tax increase. That's up from 57% a month ago. * By comparison, 50% of voters see the President as politically conservative. Thirty-four percent (34%) see Bush as a moderate. * While two-thirds of liberal voters see Bush as conservative, conservative voters remain divided. Just 49% of all conservatives see the President as one of them. The good news for the President is that figure is up from 46% a month ago. * If George W. Bush is elected, 32% of all voters expect their taxes to go up while only 16% expect their taxes to decline. A month ago, those figures were 34% and 15% respectively. * Regardless of who they want to win, 51% of all voters believe George W. Bush will be re-elected. That's down from 55% a month ago. Thirty-five percent (35%) now believe Kerry will win, up from 30% a month ago. The national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 19-20, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology) |
Democratic Party Primary Preferences
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