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Welcome
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At
Rasmussen Reports we interview 1,000 Likely Voters every single night.
Data on this page reflects a seven-day rolling average sample of 7,000
Likely Voters spread equally over the preceding seven nights. Our surveys
were of 500 Likely Voters each night prior to September 1,
2004.
This seven-day sample reduces the random variation that can come
from smaller sample sizes and polling on different days of the
week.
The
seven day rolling average is useful in cutting through the statistical
noise of smaller samples and measuring the overall flow of the campaign.
However, it lags behind other indicators in measuring reaction to breaking
news. Seven day rolling average data is also available for the President's
Job
Approval Ratings and the Generic Congressional
Ballot. Three day rolling average information is also available for
the Presidential
Race, the President's Job
Approval, and the Generic Congressional
Ballot.
For
data from prior to June 30, click here.
Current data, click here.
Survey of 3,500 Likely Voters over preceding 7 nights This table updated daily
| RR |
Presidential
Tracking
(no leaners) |
Presidential Tracking
(with leaners) |
Core Support
("Certain" Voters) |
| Bush |
Kerry |
Spread |
Bush |
Kerry |
Spread |
Bush |
Kerry |
| Aug
31 |
46.9 |
46.2 |
B + 0.7 |
48.2 |
47.8 |
B
+
0.4 |
40.9 |
39.2 |
| Aug
30 |
47.0 |
46.1 |
B + 0.9 |
48.2 |
47.6 |
B
+
0.6 |
40.9 |
39.1 |
| Aug
29 |
47.1 |
46.2 |
B + 0.9 |
48.3 |
47.8 |
B
+
0.5 |
40.7 |
38.8 |
| Aug
28 |
46.9 |
46.3 |
B + 0.6 |
48.3 |
47.9 |
B
+
0.4 |
40.4 |
39.0 |
| Aug
27 |
46.6 |
46.3 |
B + 0.3 |
47.9 |
48.1 |
K +
0.2 |
40.2 |
39.4 |
| Aug
26 |
47.1 |
46.6 |
B + 0.5 |
48.3 |
48.4 |
K +
0.1 |
40.7 |
39.6 |
| Aug
25 |
47.0 |
46.9 |
B + 0.1 |
48.3 |
48.6 |
K +
0.3 |
40.6 |
39.7 |
| Aug
24 |
47.0 |
47.2 |
K + 0.2 |
48.3 |
48.9 |
K +
0.6 |
40.7 |
39.6 |
| Aug
23 |
46.4 |
47.5 |
K + 1.1 |
47.6 |
49.4 |
K +
1.8 |
40.0 |
39.8 |
| Aug
22 |
46.8 |
47.3 |
K + 0.5 |
47.9 |
48.9 |
K +
1.0 |
40.5 |
39.6 |
| Aug
21 |
46.4 |
47.8 |
K + 1.4 |
47.4 |
49.2 |
K +
1.8 |
40.4 |
39.6 |
| Aug
20 |
46.7 |
47.9 |
K + 1.2 |
47.7 |
49.2 |
K +
1.5 |
40.5 |
39.4 |
| Aug
19 |
46.3 |
47.9 |
K + 1.6 |
47.2 |
49.3 |
K +
2.1 |
39.9 |
39.5 |
| Aug
18 |
45.9 |
48.1 |
K + 2.2 |
46.8 |
49.7 |
K +
2.9 |
40.0 |
39.8 |
| Aug
17 |
45.8 |
48.2 |
K + 2.4 |
46.7 |
49.6 |
K +
2.9 |
39.7 |
39.9 |
| Aug
16 |
45.4 |
48.6 |
K + 3.2 |
46.3 |
50.3 |
K +
4.0 |
39.6 |
40.1 |
| Aug
15 |
45.0 |
48.9 |
K + 3.9 |
46.1 |
50.7 |
K +
4.6 |
39.1 |
40.3 |
| Aug
14 |
45.3 |
48.5 |
K + 3.2 |
46.6 |
50.2 |
K +
3.6 |
39.2 |
40.1 |
| Aug
13 |
45.5 |
48.3 |
K + 2.8 |
46.8 |
50.1 |
K +
3.3 |
39.4 |
40.0 |
| Aug
12 |
45.6 |
48.3 |
K + 2.7 |
47.0 |
50.1 |
K +
3.1 |
39.9 |
40.3 |
| Aug
11 |
45.6 |
48.4 |
K + 2.8 |
46.9 |
50.3 |
K +
3.4 |
39.7 |
40.3 |
| Aug
10 |
45.7 |
48.1 |
K + 2.4 |
47.1 |
50.0 |
K +
2.9 |
40.1 |
40.2 |
| Aug
9 |
46.4 |
47.3 |
K + 0.9 |
47.8 |
49.2 |
K +
1.4 |
40.9 |
39.7 |
| Aug
8 |
46.7 |
46.5 |
B + 0.2 |
48.2 |
48.4 |
K +
0.2 |
41.5 |
39.2 |
| Aug
7 |
45.9 |
47.4 |
K + 1.5 |
47.4 |
49.4 |
K +
2.0 |
40.8 |
40.0 |
| Aug
6 |
45.6 |
47.5 |
K + 1.9 |
47.2 |
49.5 |
K +
2.3 |
40.5 |
40.1 |
| Aug
5 |
45.3 |
47.3 |
K + 2.0 |
46.9 |
49.6 |
K +
2.7 |
40.3 |
40.1 |
| Aug
4 |
45.6 |
47.3 |
K + 1.7 |
47.5 |
49.5 |
K +
2.0 |
40.4 |
40.0 |
| Aug
3 |
45.4 |
47.6 |
K + 2.2 |
47.1 |
49.8 |
K +
2.7 |
39.9 |
39.7 |
| Aug
2 |
45.3 |
47.7 |
K + 2.4 |
47.0 |
50.0 |
K +
3.0 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
| Aug
1 |
45.0 |
48.2 |
K + 3.2 |
46.6 |
50.4 |
K +
3.8 |
39.2 |
39.4 |
| July 31 |
44.7 |
47.4 |
K + 2.7 |
46.5 |
49.9 |
K +
3.4 |
38.7 |
38.4 |
| July 30 |
45.4 |
47.4 |
K + 2.0 |
46.9 |
49.6 |
K +
2.7 |
39.2 |
37.5 |
| July 29 |
45.6 |
47.3 |
K + 1.7 |
47.2 |
49.5 |
K +
2.3 |
38.7 |
37.2 |
| July 28 |
45.3 |
47.5 |
K + 2.2 |
46.7 |
49.8 |
K +
3.1 |
38.4 |
37.0 |
| July 27 |
45.5 |
47.4 |
K + 1.9 |
46.7 |
49.6 |
K +
2.9 |
38.4 |
36.8 |
| July 26 |
45.8 |
47.1 |
K + 1.3 |
47.1 |
49.3 |
K +
2.2 |
38.7 |
36.7 |
| July 25 |
46.0 |
46.6 |
K + 0.6 |
47.4 |
48.9 |
K +
1.5 |
38.6 |
36.8 |
| July 24 |
46.1 |
46.5 |
K + 0.4 |
47.4 |
48.9 |
K +
1.5 |
38.6 |
36.5 |
| July 23 |
45.9 |
46.7 |
K + 0.8 |
47.4 |
48.9 |
K +
1.5 |
38.5 |
37.2 |
| July 22 |
46.0 |
46.8 |
K + 0.8 |
47.6 |
48.7 |
K +
1.1 |
39.2 |
37.4 |
| July 21 |
46.5 |
46.5 |
Tie |
48.0 |
48.2 |
K +
0.2 |
39.4 |
37.2 |
| July 20 |
46.3 |
46.6 |
K + 0.3 |
48.1 |
48.1 |
Tie |
39.5 |
37.5 |
| July 19 |
46.2 |
46.8 |
K + 0.6 |
48.4 |
48.1 |
B
+
0.3 |
38.9 |
37.1 |
| July 18 |
45.6 |
47.3 |
K + 1.7 |
48.0 |
48.9 |
K
+
1.9 |
38.5 |
37.2 |
| July 17 |
45.4 |
47.5 |
K + 2.1 |
47.8 |
49.3 |
K
+
1.5 |
38.1 |
37.7 |
| July 16 |
45.2 |
47.7 |
K + 2.5 |
47.4 |
49.4 |
K
+
2.0 |
38.1 |
38.3 |
| July 15 |
45.1 |
48.0 |
K + 2.9 |
47.2 |
49.5 |
K
+
2.3 |
38.0 |
38.0 |
| July 14 |
44.9 |
48.0 |
K + 3.1 |
47.1 |
49.8 |
K
+
2.7 |
38.0 |
38.1 |
| July 13 |
45.2 |
47.7 |
K + 2.5 |
47.2 |
49.6 |
K
+
2.4 |
37.8 |
37.3 |
| July 12 |
45.4 |
47.3 |
K + 1.9 |
46.8 |
49.6 |
K
+
2.8 |
38.2 |
37.3 |
| July 11 |
46.0 |
46.6 |
K + 0.6 |
47.2 |
49.1 |
K
+
1.9 |
38.6 |
37.1 |
| July 10 |
46.1 |
46.6 |
K + 0.5 |
47.3 |
49.0 |
K
+
1.7 |
39.4 |
36.8 |
| July 9 |
46.3 |
46.2 |
B + 0.1 |
47.4 |
49.0 |
K
+
1.6 |
39.1 |
36.0 |
| July 8 |
46.0 |
45.7 |
B + 0.3 |
47.2 |
49.1 |
K
+
1.9 |
38.7 |
35.9 |
| July 7 |
45.8 |
45.4 |
B + 0.4 |
47.1 |
48.9 |
K
+
1.8 |
38.8 |
35.7 |
| July 6 |
45.7 |
45.3 |
B + 0.4 |
47.1 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.0 |
38.4 |
35.5 |
| July 5 |
No
polling |
|
|
|
|
|
| July 4 |
Fourth of
July |
|
|
|
|
|
| July 3 |
Weekend |
|
|
|
|
|
| July 2 |
45.6 |
45.5 |
B + 0.1 |
47.2 |
49.1 |
K
+
1.9 |
38.3 |
35.7 |
| July 1 |
45.1 |
45.9 |
K + 0.8 |
46.8 |
49.6 |
K
+
2.8 |
37.9 |
35.9 | |
