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At
Rasmussen Reports, we interview 500 Likely Voters every single night. Data
on this page reflects a seven day rolling average sample of 3,500 Likely
Voters spread equally over each night of the week. This reduces the random
variation that can come from smaller sample sizes and polling on different
days of the week.
The
seven day rolling average is useful in cutting through the statistical
noise of smaller samples and measuring the overall flow of the campaign.
However, it lags behind other indicators in measuring reaction to breaking
news. Seven day rolling average data is also available for the President's
Job
Approval Ratings and the Generic Congressional
Ballot. Three day rolling average information is also available for
the Presidential
Race, the President's Job
Approval, and the Generic Congressional
Ballot.
Survey of 3,500 Likely Voters over preceding seven
nights
This table is updated daily
| RR |
Presidential
Tracking
(no leaners) |
Presidential Tracking
(with leaners) |
Core Support
("Certain" Voters) |
| Bush |
Kerry |
Spread |
Bush |
Kerry |
Spread |
Bush |
Kerry |
| June 30 |
45.4 |
45.6 |
K + 0.2 |
47.1 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.0 |
38.1 |
35.9 |
| June 29 |
45.4 |
45.4 |
Tie |
47.1 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.0 |
38.3 |
35.7 |
| June 28 |
46.0 |
45.3 |
B + 0.7 |
47.6 |
48.7 |
K
+
1.1 |
38.9 |
35.4 |
| June 27 |
45.4 |
45.8 |
K + 0.4 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.2 |
38.3 |
35.8 |
| June 26 |
45.2 |
46.2 |
K + 1.0 |
46.7 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.4 |
38.1 |
36.1 |
| June 25 |
45.2 |
46.2 |
K + 1.0 |
46.5 |
49.4 |
K
+
2.9 |
37.7 |
36.1 |
| June 24 |
45.2 |
46.1 |
K + 0.9 |
46.6 |
49.1 |
K
+
2.5 |
38.1 |
35.8 |
| June 23 |
45.0 |
45.9 |
K + 0.9 |
46.5 |
49.0 |
K
+
2.5 |
38.0 |
35.3 |
| June 22 |
45.0 |
46.2 |
K + 1.2 |
46.6 |
48.9 |
K
+
2.3 |
38.3 |
35.6 |
| June 21 |
44.8 |
46.1 |
K + 1.3 |
46.2 |
48.9 |
K
+
2.7 |
37.6 |
35.4 |
| June 20 |
45.7 |
45.5 |
B + 0.2 |
47.4 |
48.5 |
K
+
1.1 |
38.2 |
34.9 |
| June 19 |
45.7 |
45.8 |
K +
0.1 |
47.4 |
48.6 |
K
+
1.2 |
38.6 |
34.6 |
| June 18 |
45.6 |
46.0 |
K + 0.4 |
47.4 |
48.7 |
K
+
1.3 |
38.7 |
34.4 |
| June 17 |
46.4 |
45.0 |
B + 1.4 |
48.1 |
48.2 |
K
+
0.1 |
39.3 |
33.5 |
| June 16 |
46.6 |
44.9 |
B + 1.7 |
48.4 |
47.9 |
B
+
0.5 |
39.2 |
33.6 |
| June 15 |
46.2 |
45.4 |
B + 0.8 |
47.9 |
48.4 |
K
+
0.5 |
38.6 |
33.8 |
| June 14 |
46.3 |
45.1 |
B + 1.2 |
48.2 |
48.1 |
B
+
0.1 |
39.4 |
34.0 |
| June 13 |
45.9 |
45.3 |
B + 0.6 |
48.0 |
48.1 |
K
+
0.1 |
39.0 |
34.1 |
| June 12 |
45.6 |
45.0 |
B + 0.6 |
47.9 |
48.0 |
K
+
0.1 |
38.6 |
34.0 |
| June 11 |
45.9 |
44.6 |
B + 1.3 |
48.3 |
47.6 |
B
+
0.7 |
38.7 |
34.0 |
| June 10 |
45.3 |
45.2 |
B + 0.1 |
47.6 |
48.2 |
K +
0.6 |
37.8 |
34.8 |
| June 9 |
45.0 |
45.1 |
K + 0.1 |
47.3 |
48.3 |
K +
1.0 |
37.3 |
34.3 |
| June 8 |
44.9 |
44.8 |
B + 0.1 |
47.5 |
48.1 |
K +
0.6 |
37.2 |
34.3 |
| June 7 |
45.0 |
44.8 |
B + 0.2 |
47.5 |
48.3 |
K +
0.8 |
37.1 |
34.0 |
| June 6 |
45.0 |
44.8 |
B + 0.2 |
47.4 |
48.4 |
K +
1.0 |
37.0 |
33.7 |
| June 5 |
45.2 |
44.5 |
B + 0.7 |
47.6 |
47.8 |
K +
0.2 |
37.3 |
33.4 |
| June 4 |
45.0 |
44.3 |
B + 0.7 |
47.7 |
47.8 |
K +
0.1 |
37.2 |
33.4 |
| June 3 |
45.4 |
44.1 |
B + 1.3 |
48.0 |
47.4 |
B + 0.6 |
37.6 |
33.3 |
| June 2 |
45.0 |
44.5 |
B + 0.5 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
Tie |
37.6 |
33.7 |
| June 1 |
45.2 |
44.6 |
B + 0.6 |
47.5 |
47.9 |
K +0.4 |
37.7 |
33.6 |
| May
31 |
45.0 |
45.2 |
K + 0.2 |
47.2 |
48.4 |
K +1.2 |
37.0 |
33.9 |
| May
30 |
45.1 |
44.7 |
B + 0.4 |
47.4 |
48.1 |
K +0.7 |
37.2 |
33.5 |
| May
29 |
44.6 |
45.3 |
K + 0.7 |
46.7 |
49.0 |
K +2.3 |
37.0 |
34.2 |
| May
28 |
44.9 |
45.3 |
K + 0.4 |
46.6 |
49.1 |
K +2.5 |
37.1 |
34.0 |
| May
27 |
44.4 |
45.6 |
K + 1.2 |
46.0 |
49.6 |
K + 3.6 |
37.1 |
33.6 |
| May
26 |
44.5 |
45.5 |
K + 1.0 |
46.1 |
49.7 |
K + 3.6 |
37.2 |
34.0 |
| May
25 |
44.9 |
45.3 |
K + 0.4 |
46.7 |
49.2 |
K + 2.5 |
37.8 |
33.8 |
| May
24 |
45.2 |
44.5 |
B + 0.7 |
47.1 |
48.2 |
K + 1.1 |
38.3 |
33.5 |
| May
23 |
44.8 |
44.5 |
B + 0.3 |
46.9 |
48.2 |
K + 1.3 |
38.0 |
33.6 |
| May
22 |
44.4 |
44.7 |
K + 0.3 |
46.6 |
48.6 |
K + 2.0 |
37.3 |
34.3 |
| May
21 |
44.3 |
44.8 |
K + 0.5 |
46.8 |
48.4 |
K + 1.6 |
37.5 |
34.6 |
| May
20 |
44.3 |
45.0 |
K + 0.7 |
46.8 |
48.3 |
K + 1.5 |
37.1 |
35.0 |
| May
19 |
45.3 |
44.7 |
B + 0.6 |
47.7 |
47.6 |
B + 0.1 |
37.7 |
34.5 |
| May
18 |
44.5 |
45.6 |
K + 1.1 |
46.7 |
48.6 |
K + 1.9 |
36.9 |
34.5 |
| May
17 |
44.7 |
45.8 |
K + 1.1 |
46.7 |
48.9 |
K + 2.2 |
37.1 |
34.4 |
| May
16 |
45.2 |
46.0 |
K + 0.8 |
47.0 |
48.8 |
K + 1.8 |
37.4 |
34.7 |
| May
15 |
45.6 |
45.9 |
K + 0.3 |
47.4 |
48.4 |
K + 1.0 |
37.5 |
34.0 |
| May
14 |
45.6 |
46.0 |
K + 0.4 |
47.4 |
48.5 |
K + 1.1 |
37.4 |
33.9 |
| May
13 |
45.6 |
45.9 |
K + 0.3 |
47.5 |
48.4 |
K + 0.9 |
37.4 |
34.0 |
| May
12 |
44.9 |
46.2 |
K + 1.3 |
46.8 |
49.1 |
K + 2.3 |
37.0 |
34.2 |
| May
11 |
45.4 |
45.4 |
Tie |
47.6 |
48.2 |
K + 0.6 |
36.8 |
33.9 |
| May
10 |
No Polling on
Mothers' Day |
|
|
|
|
|
| May
9 |
44.4 |
46.5 |
K + 2.1 |
46.5 |
49.2 |
K + 2.7 |
35.8 |
34.8 |
| May
8 |
43.9 |
46.2 |
K + 2.3 |
46.4 |
49.3 |
K + 2.9 |
35.6 |
34.3 |
| May
7 |
44.1 |
45.9 |
K + 1.8 |
46.5 |
49.1 |
K + 2.6 |
36.1 |
34.6 |
| May
6 |
44.1 |
45.9 |
K + 1.8 |
46.3 |
49.4 |
K + 3.1 |
36.2 |
34.7 |
| May
5 |
44.4 |
46.0 |
K + 1.6 |
46.4 |
49.3 |
K + 2.9 |
36.6 |
34.3 |
| May
4 |
44.3 |
45.9 |
K + 1.6 |
46.3 |
49.2 |
K + 2.9 |
36.3 |
34.5 |
| May
3 |
44.3 |
45.9 |
K + 1.6 |
46.4 |
49.3 |
K + 2.9 |
36.5 |
34.5 |
| May
2 |
45.2 |
45.0 |
B + 0.2 |
47.4 |
48.4 |
K + 1.0 |
37.5 |
33.7 |
| May
1 |
46.0 |
45.2 |
B + 0.8 |
47.3 |
48.6 |
K + 1.3 |
38.0 |
34.4 |
| Apr
30 |
46.4 |
44.8 |
B + 1.6 |
48.1 |
48.0 |
B + 0.1 |
38.4 |
33.1 |
| Apr
29 |
46.3 |
45.0 |
B + 1.3 |
48.2 |
48.0 |
B + 0.2 |
38.3 |
33.4 |
| Apr
28 |
46.2 |
44.8 |
B +
1.4 |
48.2 |
47.7 |
B + 0.5 |
37.9 |
33.6 |
| Apr
27 |
46.4 |
44.5 |
B +
0.9 |
48.4 |
47.7 |
B + 0.7 |
37.9 |
33.1 |
| Apr
26 |
46.7 |
44.1 |
B +
2.6 |
48.4 |
47.3 |
B + 1.1 |
38.4 |
32.9 |
| Apr
25 |
46.1 |
44.6 |
B +
1.5 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
Tie |
37.9 |
33.3 |
| Apr
24 |
45.8 |
44.7 |
B +
1.1 |
47.6 |
47.7 |
K + 0.1 |
37.4 |
33.5 |
| Apr
23 |
45.2 |
44.9 |
B
+ 0.3 |
47.2 |
47.9 |
K + 0.7 |
37.2 |
33.8 |
| Apr
22 |
45.1 |
44.6 |
B +
0.5 |
47.1 |
47.8 |
K + 0.7 |
37.2 |
33.1 |
| Apr
21 |
45.5 |
44.4 |
B +
1.1 |
47.4 |
47.7 |
K + 0.3 |
37.5 |
32.7 |
| Apr
20 |
45.7 |
44.3 |
B +
1.4 |
47.8 |
47.2 |
B + 0.6 |
37.9 |
33.1 |
| Apr
19 |
45.4 |
45.2 |
B +
0.2 |
47.6 |
47.7 |
K + 0.1 |
37.1 |
34.2 |
| Apr
18 |
45.6 |
45.4 |
B +
0.2 |
47.8 |
47.7 |
B + 0.1 |
37.3 |
34.0 |
| Apr
17 |
45.5 |
45.2 |
B +
0.3 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
Tie |
37.6 |
34.1 |
| Apr
16 |
45.9 |
44.9 |
B +
1.0 |
48.1 |
47.4 |
B + 0.7 |
37.5 |
33.9 |
| The 7 Day Survey Results below are for the week ending
on date indicated |
| Apr
15 |
45.9 |
44.9 |
B + 1.0 |
7 Day
rolling average results
with Leaners & "Certain"
Voters
daily tracking effective April 9.
Initially reported April 16
and daily thereafter. |
| Apr
8 |
44.4 |
46.5 |
K + 2.1 |
| Apr
1 |
44.2 |
44.3 |
K + 0.1 |
| Mar
25 |
45.3 |
46.1 |
K + 0.8 |
| Mar
18 |
46.0 |
44.6 |
B + 1.4 |
| Mar
11 |
45.6 |
45.4 |
B + 0.2 |
| Mar
4 |
46.5 |
46.1 |
B + 0.5 |
| Feb
26 |
46.7 |
45.3 |
B + 1.4 |
| Feb
19 |
46.0 |
44.8 |
B + 1.2 |
| Feb
12 |
46.3 |
45.3 |
B + 1.0 |
| Feb
5 |
45.6 |
44.7 |
B + 0.9 |
| Jan
29 |
45.0 |
42.6 |
B + 2.4 |
|
