RR Presidential Track

Welcome to the Rasmussen Reports Daily Snapshot. This page is updated at least twice daily. Questions or comments? New State Polls: Alabama, Maryland, Oregon, Virginia, Wisconsin.

Scott's Page comments on Interest in the campaign and Likely Voter models.

Michigan is worth watching carefully. Our latest data shows the state closer than anticipated. If this holds for another day or two, we will shift the state to Toss-Up status instead of Leans Kerry.

Pre-Debate Perspectives: Voters overwhelming believes finishing the mission in Iraq is more important to President Bush than getting troops home right away. They also believe just the opposite about Senator Kerry. As for the public, a narrow majority of voters say finishing the mission is more important.

Daily Tracking Polls: Tracking Polls for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have been updated for Tuesday. Next update, Wednesday 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Rasmussen Reports Top-Lines (3-Day Rolling Average)
	29-Sep	28-Sep	27-Sep	26-Sep	25-Sep	24-Sep	23-Sep	22-Sep	21-Sep
Bush	49.1%	47.9%	47.7%	47.2%	47.9%	47.4%	49.0%	48.8%	48.3%
Kerry	45.3%	46.3%	46.0%	46.5%	46.3%	46.5%	45.4%	44.8%	45.5%

Archives: Review Daily Snapshot for yesterday, Sept 27, Sept 26, Sept 25, Sept 24, Sept 23, Sept 22, Sept 21, Sept 20, Sept 19, Sept 18, Sept 17, Sept 16, Sept 15, Sept 14, Sept 13, Sept 12, Sept 11, Sept 10, Sept 9, Sept 8 Sept 7, Sept 6, Sept 5, Sept 4, Sept 3, Sept 2, or Sept 1.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004			Wednesday, September 29, 2004
3-Day Rolling Average			3-Day Rolling Average
Ballot	National	16-State	Ballot	GOP	Dem	Other
Bush	49.1%	47.9%	Bush	86.0%	18.0%	44.9%
Kerry	45.3%	45.9%	Kerry	10.8%	78.3%	42.3%

Ballot (with Leaners)
Bush	50.3%	49.0%	Bush Fav	87.8%	22.8%	51.1%
Kerry	46.6%	47.5%	Unfavorable	11.9%	75.9%	47.7%

Bush Fav	53.1%	52.8%	Kerry Fav	15.2%	80.7%	50.1%
Unfavorable	46.0%	46.2%	Unfavorable	83.4%	17.9%	49.2%

Kerry Fav	49.6%	48.6%	Right Track	70.1%	17.0%	37.3%
Unfavorable	49.1%	50.0%	Wrong	25.0%	79.3%	57.8%

Right Track	41.1%	41.3%	Interest	7.6	7.3	7.1
Wrong	54.5%	55.3%

Certain-Bush	88.9%	89.1%
Certain-Kerry	85.7%	84.7%

Interest	7.4	7.5

NOTE: "Interest" refers to interest in the Presidential campaign. We ask people to rate how closely they are following the race on a scale from 0 to 9 (with nine meaning they are following the race closely every day). The numbers are presented as an average.

"Certain-Bush" and "Certain-Kerry" refers to the percent of voters for each candidate who are certain of how they will vote.

Rasmussen Reports Selected Data
16-States, 7-Day Rolling Average
	29-Sep	28-Sep	27-Sep	26-Sep	25-Sep	24-Sep	23-Sep	22-Sep	21-Sep	20-Sep
Bush	47.5%	47.0%	47.4%	47.3%	47.3%	46.8%	46.9%	46.9%	46.8%	46.3%
Kerry	46.9%	47.0%	46.6%	46.8%	46.8%	47.0%	46.9%	46.5%	46.7%	47.6%

Bush Fav	52.3%	52.0%	52.2%	52.3%	51.9%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.2%	50.6%
Unfav	46.6%	46.7%	46.6%	46.6%	46.9%	47.8%	47.5%	47.2%	47.7%	48.1%

Kerry Fav	49.9%	50.0%	49.7%	49.8%	49.9%	50.1%	50.1%	49.5%	50.2%	51.0%
Unfav	48.6%	48.0%	48.3%	48.3%	48.2%	48.2%	48.1%	48.8%	48.5%	47.6%

Right Track	42.0%	41.4%	41.2%	41.9%	41.3%	40.3%	40.6%	40.5%	40.3%	40.0%
Wrong	54.7%	55.4%	55.2%	54.6%	55.1%	56.0%	55.5%	55.3%	55.3%	55.7%

Bush Approve	52.2%	52.0%	51.7%	51.3%	50.8%	50.4%	50.8%	50.7%	50.8%	50.2%
Disapprove	47.5%	47.6%	47.9%	48.2%	48.5%	49.0%	48.5%	48.5%	48.5%	48.9%

The "16-States" are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire