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Daily Snapshot--Wednesday, September 29

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Welcome

Welcome to the Rasmussen Reports Daily Snapshot. This page is updated at least twice daily. Questions or comments? New State Polls: Alabama, Maryland, Oregon, Virginia, Wisconsin.

Scott's Page comments on Interest in the campaign and Likely Voter models.

Michigan is worth watching carefully. Our latest data shows the state closer than anticipated. If this holds for another day or two, we will shift the state to Toss-Up status instead of Leans Kerry.

Pre-Debate Perspectives: Voters overwhelming believes finishing the mission in Iraq is more important to President Bush than getting troops home right away. They also believe just the opposite about Senator Kerry.  As for the public, a narrow majority of voters say finishing the mission is more important.

Daily Tracking Polls: Tracking Polls for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have been updated for Tuesday. Next update, Wednesday 5:00 p.m. Eastern. 

Rasmussen Reports Top-Lines (3-Day Rolling Average)
  29-Sep 28-Sep 27-Sep 26-Sep 25-Sep 24-Sep 23-Sep 22-Sep 21-Sep
Bush 49.1% 47.9% 47.7% 47.2% 47.9% 47.4% 49.0% 48.8% 48.3%
Kerry 45.3% 46.3% 46.0% 46.5% 46.3% 46.5% 45.4% 44.8% 45.5%

Archives:  Review Daily Snapshot for yesterday, Sept 27, Sept 26, Sept 25, Sept 24, Sept 23, Sept 22, Sept 21, Sept 20, Sept 19, Sept 18, Sept 17, Sept 16, Sept 15, Sept 14, Sept 13, Sept 12, Sept 11, Sept 10, Sept 9, Sept 8 Sept 7, Sept 6, Sept 5, Sept 4, Sept 3, Sept 2, or Sept 1.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004   Wednesday, September 29, 2004
3-Day Rolling Average   3-Day Rolling Average
Ballot National 16-State   Ballot GOP Dem Other
Bush 49.1% 47.9%   Bush 86.0% 18.0% 44.9%
Kerry 45.3% 45.9%   Kerry 10.8% 78.3% 42.3%
               
Ballot (with Leaners)              
Bush 50.3% 49.0%   Bush Fav 87.8% 22.8% 51.1%
Kerry 46.6% 47.5%   Unfavorable 11.9% 75.9% 47.7%
               
Bush Fav 53.1% 52.8%   Kerry Fav 15.2% 80.7% 50.1%
Unfavorable 46.0% 46.2%   Unfavorable 83.4% 17.9% 49.2%
               
Kerry Fav 49.6% 48.6%   Right Track 70.1% 17.0% 37.3%
Unfavorable 49.1% 50.0%   Wrong 25.0% 79.3% 57.8%
               
Right Track 41.1% 41.3%   Interest  7.6 7.3 7.1
Wrong 54.5% 55.3%          
               
Certain-Bush 88.9% 89.1%          
Certain-Kerry 85.7% 84.7%          
               
Interest  7.4 7.5          

NOTE: "Interest" refers to interest in the Presidential campaign. We ask people to rate how closely they are following the race on a scale from 0 to 9 (with nine meaning they are following the race closely every day). The numbers are presented as an average.

"Certain-Bush" and "Certain-Kerry" refers to the percent of voters for each candidate who are certain of how they will vote.

Rasmussen Reports Selected Data
16-States, 7-Day Rolling Average
  29-Sep 28-Sep 27-Sep 26-Sep 25-Sep 24-Sep 23-Sep 22-Sep 21-Sep 20-Sep
Bush 47.5% 47.0% 47.4% 47.3% 47.3% 46.8% 46.9% 46.9% 46.8% 46.3%
Kerry 46.9% 47.0% 46.6% 46.8% 46.8% 47.0% 46.9% 46.5% 46.7% 47.6%
                     
Bush Fav 52.3% 52.0% 52.2% 52.3% 51.9% 51.2% 51.4% 51.6% 51.2% 50.6%
Unfav 46.6% 46.7% 46.6% 46.6% 46.9% 47.8% 47.5% 47.2% 47.7% 48.1%
                     
Kerry Fav 49.9% 50.0% 49.7% 49.8% 49.9% 50.1% 50.1% 49.5% 50.2% 51.0%
Unfav 48.6% 48.0% 48.3% 48.3% 48.2% 48.2% 48.1% 48.8% 48.5% 47.6%
                     
Right Track 42.0% 41.4% 41.2% 41.9% 41.3% 40.3% 40.6% 40.5% 40.3% 40.0%
Wrong 54.7% 55.4% 55.2% 54.6% 55.1% 56.0% 55.5% 55.3% 55.3% 55.7%
                     
Bush Approve 52.2% 52.0% 51.7% 51.3% 50.8% 50.4% 50.8% 50.7% 50.8% 50.2%
Disapprove 47.5% 47.6% 47.9% 48.2% 48.5% 49.0% 48.5% 48.5% 48.5% 48.9%

The "16-States" are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire

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