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Daily Snapshot--Tuesday, November 2 Election Day

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Welcome to the Rasmussen Reports Daily Snapshot. Questions or comments?

FINAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: Bush 50.2% Kerry 48.5% Other 1.3%

FINAL STATE TRACKING POLL UPDATE: Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

State Polls: Oregon, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington, New Jersey, North Carolina, Missouri, Maryland, Alabama, California, Georgia, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New York  Senate Polling Summary.

Electoral College:  Bush 222 Kerry 186. See Viewers Guide.

Rasmussen on BBC: Tuesday night, Election Night, 10:00 p.m. Eastern. Rasmussen on Fox:  Wednesday--O'Reilly Factor (8:00 p.m. Eastern).

Renewals: For our Election 2004 Members, it's time to renew your Membership. Politics and news will continue after Election Day... our daily polling will continue as well.

NOTE: The numbers below reflect Tracking Poll data without leaners and with undecided voters. They are based upon data released Monday and include interviews completed through Sunday night.

Undecideds are not included in our final projection. FINAL: Bush 50.2% Kerry 48.5%

Rasmussen Reports Top-Lines (3-Day Rolling Average)
  1-Nov 31-Oct 30-Oct 29-Oct 28-Oct 27-Oct 26-Oct 25-Oct 24-Oct 23-Oct
Bush 48.8% 48.1% 47.9% 48.7% 48.9% 48.8% 47.8% 46.4% 47.6% 48.0%
Kerry 47.4% 47.1% 47.1% 46.7% 46.9% 47.0% 47.8% 48.4% 47.2% 46.7%

 

Monday, November 01, 2004   Monday, November 01, 2004
3-Day Rolling Average   3-Day Rolling Average
Ballot National 16-State   Ballot GOP Dem Other
Bush 48.8% 49.2%   Bush 89.3% 14.8% 43.8%
Kerry 47.4% 47.0%   Kerry 9.2% 83.3% 46.3%
               
Ballot (with Leaners)              
Bush 49.4% 50.3%   Bush Fav 90.1% 20.1% 49.3%
Kerry 48.8% 48.0%   Unfavorable 9.6% 78.9% 50.3%
               
Bush Fav 52.5% 53.4%   Kerry Fav 12.4% 84.4% 53.7%
Unfavorable 46.9% 45.8%   Unfavorable 86.8% 14.6% 44.1%
               
Kerry Fav 50.9% 50.1%   Right Track 78.6% 14.0% 37.9%
Unfavorable 47.9% 48.5%   Wrong 18.1% 82.6% 58.0%
               
Right Track 43.1% 44.8%   Interest  8.0 8.0 7.6
Wrong 53.3% 50.7%          
               
Certain-Bush 94.0% 94.1%          
Certain-Kerry 93.7% 91.6%          
               
Interest  7.9 7.9          

NOTE: "Interest" refers to interest in the Presidential campaign. We ask people to rate how closely they are following the race on a scale from 0 to 9 (with nine meaning they are following the race closely every day). The numbers are presented as an average.

"Certain-Bush" and "Certain-Kerry" refers to the percent of voters for each candidate who are certain of how they will vote.

Rasmussen Reports Selected Data
16-States, 7-Day Rolling Average
  1-Nov 31-Oct 30-Oct 29-Oct 28-Oct 27-Oct 26-Oct 25-Oct 24-Oct
Bush 47.7% 47.5% 47.2% 47.2% 48.0% 47.8% 48.4% 47.9% 47.4%
Kerry 47.9% 48.2% 48.3% 48.1% 47.5% 47.8% 47.4% 47.6% 47.9%
                   
Bush Fav 51.5% 51.3% 51.0% 51.3% 52.0% 51.8% 52.5% 52.0% 51.4%
Unfav 47.5% 47.6% 48.0% 47.7% 47.1% 47.4% 46.8% 47.3% 48.0%
                   
Kerry Fav 50.9% 50.8% 50.9% 50.5% 51.1% 51.4% 49.7% 49.7% 50.4%
Unfav 47.6% 47.9% 47.8% 48.1% 48.7% 48.5% 49.4% 49.4% 48.6%
                   
Right Track 42.6% 42.3% 41.9% 42.4% 43.3% 42.7% 43.3% 43.1% 42.6%
Wrong 53.3% 53.9% 54.3% 54.1% 53.6% 54.1% 53.7% 53.7% 54.2%
                   
Bush Approve 52.0% 51.8% 51.2% 51.4% 52.3% 52.0% 52.6% 52.2% 51.8%
Disapprove 47.4% 47.7% 48.4% 48.3% 47.4% 47.7% 47.1% 47.4% 47.8%

The "16-States" are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, Oregon, Iowa, Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia, Maine, and New Hampshire

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