Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell

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Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell's lead over Republican Mike McGavick has slumped by eleven percentage points—the same amount by which it spiked in our early-September poll.

Cantwell now leads McGavick 48% to 42% (see crosstabs). That's the same spread the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed in mid-August, though both contenders have added a couple points to their support since then.

The relapse means we're shifting the race from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. This race has shifted ground more than any other state, but always between “Leans Democrat” and “Democrat.”

Cantwell’s lead spiked in our last poll following McGavick's confession of a drunk driving incident some years ago, which he made before the story could be reported independently. Some believe the challenger hurt himself by giving an inaccurate description of the event. But, the strategy worked insofar as the political benefit for Cantwell came in early September rather than early November, giving McGavick more time to recover.

That poll was conducted the night before an awkward issue emerged for Cantwell in the form of her not-yet-repaid loan to a lobbyist for whom she has secured millions in federal projects. Voters had, in any case, half-expected the other shoe to drop. In early September, 58% told us that it was at least somewhat likely that Cantwell also had something embarrassing in her past.

McGavick’s support among fellow Republicans has solidified, perhaps because time has passed from news of his own incident, perhaps because of the news about Cantwell. The challenger now attracts 90% of the GOP vote, up from 77% . He has also regained ground among unaffiliated voters after trailing by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

Cantwell attracts 89% of Democrats, unchanged from the previous poll.

McGavick's favorables have recovered as well. Now 21% view him "very favorably," 18% "very unfavorably." In early September it was 15% very favorable, 21% very unfavorable. Cantwell is still viewed very favorably by 26%. But now 21% view her very unfavorably, up from 17% in the previous poll.

Despite the rebound for McGavick, the incumbent still leads, if narrowly, as she has all year. Currently, only 7% are undecided.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.