Republican Senator Mike DeWine

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In the Ohio race for U.S. Senate, Republican Senator Mike DeWine again enjoys a moderate lead, 46% to 39%, over Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown. Last month Brown was the leader, 44% to 41%—the first time the Democrat had pulled ahead all year.

Though still below 50%, support for DeWine's candidacy now matches his highest level in 2006. But Republicans should not uncork the champagne just yet. Our three-poll rolling average continues to show a very close race.

DeWine attracts only 73% of GOP voters, versus the 75% of Democrats who support Brown; 9% of GOP voters are inclined to vote for a third-party candidate. (Only 3% of Democrats feel that way.)

Some disaffected Republicans may return to the fold if it becomes clear that control of the Senate is on the line, but it's an uphill battle. In addition to the generally rough political terrain for GOP candidates this year, the incumbent is running for reelection in a state with a very unpopular Republican governor, embroiled in scandal.

DeWine himself has angered conservatives for opposing a bill to protect gun manufacturers from liability suits, and for joining the so-called Gang of 14 in fashioning a compromise about judicial nominations that they believe favors Democrats.

Senator DeWine is viewed favorably by 51%, unfavorably by 39%. Ten percent (10%) are "not sure" what to think of him, high for an incumbent.

Brown is viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 36%, with 17% "not sure."

For data on how Ohio voters feel about several politicians considering a 2008 presidential campaign, see our story on the gubernatorial race.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.