Survey of 500 Likely Voters
July 26, 2006

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 50%
Rick Santorum (R) 39%

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate

Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys Casey Santorum
May-Jun-Jul 53% 36%
Apr-May-Jun 53% 36%
Mar-Apr-May 52% 37%
Mar 14-Mar 29-Apr 50% 39%
Feb-Mar 14-Mar 29 50% 38%
Jan-Feb-Mar 51% 37%
Nov-Jan-Feb 53% 36%
Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate
Date Casey Santorum
Jul 26 50% 39%
Jun 19 52% 37%
May 22 56% 33%
Apr 20 51% 38%
Mar 29 50% 41%
Mar 14 48% 38%
Feb 16 52% 36%
Jan 15 53% 38%
Nov 10 54% 34%
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Pennsylvania Senate:
Santorum Still Below 40%

Santorum (R) 39%, Casey (D) 50%

Democratic Challenger Bob Casey, Jr.

Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. is maintaining a double-digit advantage over Senator Rick Santorum, leading 50% to 39% (see crosstabs).

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race shows a narrowing of the gap since June—from fifteen to eleven percentage points. But, considering the stability of this contest, the incumbent can't really say he is turning a corner.

In five of our last seven surveys, Casey's support has ranged narrowly between 50% and 52%. One exception lies above that range, the other below. Santorum's pattern is similar: between 36% and 39% in five of seven surveys—again, with one exception above and one below that range.

Senator Santorum is the incumbent, has plenty of cash, and has been pushing hard to lure less partisan voters by stressing non-signature issues like his ability to deliver pork. But he is controversial and up against a well-known challenger.

The Senator remains the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent. But he's not as lonely as he was a few months back: four other Republican Senators now also trail Democratic challengers: Burns in Montana, Chafee in Rhode Island, DeWine in Ohio, and Talent in Missouri.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 50%; 30% view him "very" unfavorably. He is popular enough with his base, with 76% of Republicans viewing him favorably, 48% "very favorably" (numbers that have been increasing). But 47% percent of Democrats view him "very unfavorably." And Santorum barely scrapes up a 32% favorable rating from unaffiliated voters, the group he must win over to squeak through. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of unaffilateds and 61% of moderates view him unfavorably.

Casey is viewed favorably by 66% of all voters. That figure includes 57% of unaffiliated voters and 71% of moderates. But relatively few regarding him "very" favorably, confirming the perception that the election is largely a referendum on Santorum.

Pennsylvania's gubernatorial race isn’t much closer than the Senate race as Ed Rendell (D) leads in his bid for re-election.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members.


Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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