Survey of 500 Likely Voters
July 27, 2006

Election 2006: Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown (D) 44%
Mike DeWine (R) 42%

Election 2006: Ohio Senate

Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys Brown DeWine
May-Jun-Jul 44% 42%
Apr-May-Jun 43% 41%
Mar-Apr-May 43% 42%


45% 40%
Jan-Feb-Mar 45% 40%
Nov-Jan-Feb 45% 39%
Election 2006: Ohio Senate
Date Brown DeWine
Jul 27 44% 42%
Jun 10 46% 39%
May 8 41% 44%
Apr 19 43% 41%
Mar 28 45% 42%
Feb 16 46% 37%
Jan 3 45% 40%
Nov 30 43% 41%
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Ohio Senate: Again, DeWine (R) Behind
Brown (D) 44%, DeWine (R) 42%
Democratic Challenger Sherrod Brown

This information will be released on on August 3, 2006. This pre-release is provided for the private use of Premium Members Only.

Here we go again. For the second time in three consecutive election polls of Ohio's competitive race for U.S. Senate, the Democratic challenger has edged ahead of the Republican incumbent.

Despite the seven-point edge Senator Mike DeWine enjoyed last month, this doesn't look like a statistical blip: before these last three polls, DeWine had not trailed even once. Moreover, our three-poll rolling average shows a relatively stable five-point margin for DeWine earlier in the year that has now tapered to a tie. The race is clearly trending away from the incumbent.

We're seeing the same trend in other competitive races, with GOP incumbents now trailing in Montana, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Missouri.

Earlier in the campaign season, the only Republican incumbent actually trailing was Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum—and Santorum lagged so badly and persistently that there was some justification for segregating his fate from that of Republicans generally. But now it looks more likely that the others in the GOP will share Santorum’s fate.

DeWine is viewed favorably by 46%, unfavorably by 44%. For Sherrod Brown the numbers are 45% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

Both campaigns have stepped up spending lately on TV ads.

The number one issue for voters here is the economy (though political corruption, as we note in our story on the governor's race, also ranks fairly high for Ohioans). Voters especially worried about the economy tend to prefer Brown by a large margin.

In fact, just about half of Brown's voters (47%) say that the economy is their number one concern. Thirty-six percent (36%) of all voters say so.

Sixty-three percent (63%) are relatively confident that ballots are properly counted in most elections; 34% are not confident.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Visit our Election Polls page to see a summary of our latest state-by state polling. Rasmussen Reports is polling every Senate and Governors' race at least once a month this year. We also update the President's Job Approval on a daily basis.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


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