Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse

Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R ) has pulled to within two points of challenger Sheldon Whitehouse in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Rhode Island shows Whitehouse earning support from 44% of voters while Chafee attracts 42% (see crosstabs). Whitehouse had a six point lead last month.

Based upon this poll we are shifting the Rhode Island Senate race from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up” in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. Rhode Island is the fifth race in the Toss-Up category.

Though he has his sights set on Whitehouse, Chafee must first face off against his primary challenger, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey.  The Providence Journal reports that Chafee has outspent Laffey $2.85 million to $1.18 million thus far as they head toward the September 12 showdown.  The Whitehouse campaign will be cheering for Laffey on primary night, as the current poll shows Whitehouse leading that potential head-to-head contest 58% to 31%.

If Laffey defeats Chafee in the Republican Primary, this race will immediately be shifted to the Democrats column in our Senate Balance of Power ratings.

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Chafee is taking some heat in the primary race, particularly from an Hispanic member of the state’s general assembly, for a television ad run by the National Republican Senatorial Committee that criticizes Laffey for allowing his city to accept Mexican identification cards.  State Sen. Juan Pichardo says the ad, “unfairly portrays Hispanic immigrants as a threat to national security.” [MIKE… by the time this goes public, we will have a new immigration story on the site… should include a link to it from here]

Interestingly, equal percentages of voters say they have “very favorable” (20%) and “very unfavorable” (18%) opinions of both Chafee and Whitehouse.  Even more interesting is the fact that Chafee gets better marks from Democrats than Republicans. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Democrats have a “very favorable” opinion of Chafee compared to only 14% of the GOP faithful.

Overall, the sitting senator is up with voters from both parties.  Sixty-three percent (63%) of GOP voters and 28% of Democrats now say they support Chafee.  Those numbers were 59% and 19%, respectively, in the last poll.

Most Rhode Island voters (54%) view Chafee as politically moderate. Twenty-nine percent (29%) see their Senator as liberal and 11% say he’s a conservative.

For Whitehouse, the numbers are 39% liberal, 34% moderate, and 8% conservative.

Both candidates are seen as far to the left of President Bush who is seen as politically conservative by 66% of Rhode Island voters. Distance from the President is a good thing in this left leaning state that doesn’t place much confidence in the performance of the President.

When asked who they trust more on matters relating to national security and the war in Iraq, 56% say the Democrats in Congress and 36% choose President Bush.  The numbers diverge even further when it comes to managing the economy; 60% choose Congressional Democrats and slightly less than one-third (31%) choose the President.

Rhode Island is one of five states now listed in the Toss-Up Category for Election 2006. Three of the other four are also held by Republicans (Montana, Missouri, and Ohio). The only Toss-Up race for seat currently held by Democrats is in New Jersey.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.