With her new lead over Republican Mike McGavick of 52% to 41% (see crosstabs), Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell again enjoys the support she had in early September. She leads 54% to 42% when leaners are added to the tallies.

On September 6, right after McGavick made public an old drunk driving incident, a Rasmussen Reports poll showed his support sliding to 35%. He rebounded to the low 40s later in the month. But he hasn't been able to climb further.

We are shifting this state from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary. While Cantwell no longer has the seventeen-point advantage she enjoyed right after McGavick's preemptive confession, the trend is in her favor.

McGavick recently appeared at the Bellingham City Club, an event the frontrunner skipped. He told attendees that he defined victory in Iraq differently from the President. It is, he said, less about ensuring a viable democracy as "not letting terrorists run the joint and use it as a staging ground against us."

McGavick recently funneled another $500,000 of his own money into his campaign.

Senator Cantwell is viewed favorably by 56%, unfavorably by 42%. McGavick is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by just as many. At 25%, Cantwell's "very favorable" rating is five points higher than her opponent's.

Two thirds of Cantwell supporters see their vote as "for" the incumbent rather than "against McGavick.”

Only 53% of all McGavick supporters characterize their vote as mostly positive; 41% consider it "against Cantwell."

President Bush, with an approval rating of 42% here, is "strongly disapproved" by 50%.

Voters tend to trust Democrats more than Republicans on Iraq and the economy. And 54% say that if their vote decided control of the Senate, they'd vote for the Democrat.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.