Both Maine's gubernatorial incumbent and its U.S. Senate incumbent are leading in the polls. But the margins are a little different.

The only suspense in the Senate race is how huge Republican Senator Olympia Snowe's electoral victory will be. Snowe now leads Democrat Jean Hay Bright 70% to 24%, a 46-point margin. Snowe is viewed favorably by 80% of all voters—"very favorably" by 49%.

Things are a bit different in the gubernatorial race, where Democratic Governor John Baldacci now leads 44% to 34% (see crosstabs). When leaners are included, it’s Baldacci by eight, 46% to 38%.

Support for Governor Baldacci is soft despite his double-digit lead. Only 28% of Maine voters are “certain” they’ll vote for him. That’s only two-percentage points more than the 26% of who say they're "certain" they'll vote Woodcock on Election Day.

In August, the Governor was “ahead” by just one percentage point. His lead grew in September.

The Governor, on a personal basis, is viewed favorably by 52% of Likely Voters but his job performance earns disapproval from 52%.

Woodcock is viewed favorably by 44%, unfavorably by 50%.

Forty-five percent (45%) of Woodcock supporters acknowledge that they are primarily voting "against Baldacci." Just 51% are voting “for Woodcock.”

Among supporters of the Governor, 64% are voting “for Baldacci” and 31% are voting "against Woodcock."

With voters underwhelmed by both major-party candidates, third-party alternatives scoop up 16% of the electorate. Even after being asked if they would switch to one of the major party candidates, 11% say they’ll cast a third party vote. Those figures reflect an increase from September when just 7% selected the third party option.

All this might cause a problem for Baldacci in a runoff. But under Maine's electoral system the Governor can win a new term without reaching the 50% level of voter support.

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