|Election 2006: Tennessee Senate|
|Bob Corker (R)||53%|
|Harold Ford, Jr. (D)||45%|
|Election 2006: Tennessee Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average
|Oct 23-Oct 30-Nov 2||46%||50%|
Oct 11-Oct 23-Oct 30
|Oct 1-Oct 11-Oct 23||47%||45%|
|Election 2006: Tennessee Senate|
Corker (R) 53% Ford (D) 45%
In Tennessee's frenetic race for U.S. Senate, Republican Mayor Bob Corker now leads Democratic Congressman Harold Ford 53% to 45% (see crosstabs).
Rasmussen Reports is shifting Tennessee from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican” in our Senate Balance of Power summary.
Each candidate has firmed up his base. Corker now attracts 93% of Republicans, up from 86% in the October 30 survey. Ford's share of Democrats has increased from 88% to 92%. Corker also gained ground among unaffiliated voters.
In addition to the Corker campaign team shake-up, other late-breaking developments include Ford's much-criticized crashing of a press conference being held by his opponent and the RNC ad with the curvaceous blond reminding voters that Ford attended a Playboy party.
Nationally, the issue of same-sex marriage came to the foreground again because of a controversial New Jersey Supreme Court decision on same-sex unions. Though both candidates criticized the decision, our polling has indicated that voters trust Corker more on that issue.
A "botched joke" by Senator John Kerry that seemed to disparage soldiers doubtless reminded some voters that they trust Republicans more than Democrats on national security. Though Ford was quick to distance himself from Kerry, 51% of Tennessee voters now trust Corker more than Ford even on Iraq. Only 39% trust Ford more.
Those figures are remarkable when you consider that 46% of Tennessee voters believe things are going poorly in Iraq. But 52% think the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terror.
On economic issues, Corker is also better trusted, 53% to 41%. The poll was taken before yesterday’s report on unemployment. Republicans immediately began playing up the drop in the unemployment rate.
It is unusual for a race to go from a two-point lead to an eight-point lead in a matter of days absent a major campaign event. It is possible that movements within the margin of error might have overstated the magnitude of a trend in Corker’s direction during these last two polls. That could be the result of either the first poll showing too close a race, the second poll showing too big a lead, or both. Rasmussen Reports will poll this race again before Election Day.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.