Survey of 500 Likely Voters
October 24, 2006

Election 2006: Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown (D) 53%
Mike DeWine (R) 41%
Election 2006: Ohio Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average
Surveys Brown DeWine
Oct 3-Oct 12-Nov 49% 41%
Sep-Oct 3-Oct 12 47% 41%
Aug-Sep-Oct 3 47% 41%
Jul-Aug-Sep 45% 42%
Jun-Jul-Aug 43% 43%
May-Jun-Jul 42% 43%
Apr-May-Jun 41% 43%
Mar-Apr-May 42% 43%
Feb-Mar-Apr 40% 45%
Jan-Feb-Mar 40% 45%
Nov-Jan-Feb 39% 45%
Election 2006: Ohio Senate
Date Brown DeWine
Oct 24 53% 41%
Oct 12 46% 41%
Oct 3 49% 41%
Sep 14 47% 41%
Aug 22 45% 42%
Jul 26 44% 42%
Jun 10 39% 46%
May 8 44% 41%
Apr 19 41% 43%
Mar 28 42% 45%
Feb 16 37% 46%
Jan 3 40% 45%
Nov 30 41% 43%
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Ohio Senate: Brown Runs Away with Lead

Brown (D) 53%; DeWine(R) 41%
Democrat Sherrod Brown

The distance between the candidates vying to represent Ohio in the United States Senate is widening.  The most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Democrat Sherrod Brown taking firmer control of the race with a 53% to 41% lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine.

When leaners are taken into account, Brown leads 54% to 43% (see crosstabs).

The momentum at this crucial late stage of the race clearly belongs to Brown.  His numbers have taken a seven-point jump since the last poll conducted in mid-October while DeWine’s remain unchanged.

Rasmussen Reports is shifting this race from “Leans Democrat” to “Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power summary

Brown also has a strong base vote working in his favor; 93% of Democrats say they plan to vote for him.  DeWine is attracting just 76% of Republicans.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say they’re “certain” to vote for Brown and slightly more than one-third (35%) are just as confident in their votes for DeWine.  Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Brown’s votes are supporting him as their candidate of choice and 35% simply want to vote against the incumbent.  Fifty-five percent (55%) of DeWine’s supporters are casting positive votes for him and 39% are supporting the incumbent to vote against Brown.

More than half of the voters surveyed (53%) report an unfavorable opinion of DeWine with 25% holding a very unfavorable opinion of him.  At the opposite extreme, 16% have a “very favorable” views of their Senator. 

For Brown, 28% have a “very favorable” opinion while 20% hold a “very unfavorable” view.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Ohio voters report following campaign news “everyday.”  A slightly higher majority (54%) rates the situation in Iraq as “poor.”  Voters fall in two distinct camps regarding Iraq’s role in the War on Terror; 46% say it’s part of the war and 45% say it’s a distraction.  Forty-four percent (44%) say they trust Republicans to handle the Iraq situation more than Democrats (43%.)

In the Buckeye State’s less competitive gubernatorial race, Ted Strickland (D) leads Ken Blackwell (R) 58% to 36%.  Nearly one-third of voters (32%) feel very favorably toward Strickland; 19% say the same of Blackwell.  Looking at the negative ratings, Blackwell’s “very unfavorable” scores are 20 points higher than Strickland’s (38% to 18%.)

Outgoing Republican Gov. Bob Taft’s numbers continue their free-fall as he prepares to leave office.  Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters disapprove of his job performance and 58% “strongly disapprove.”  Sixteen percent (16%) approve with just a handful (3%) indicating strong approval.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

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Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability.  Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is"  And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


Election 2006

Senate Balance of Power

Tennessee Senate