Survey of 500 Likely Voters
November 1, 2006

Election 2006: New Jersey Senate
Bob Menendez (D) 48%
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 43%
Election 2006: New Jersey Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average
Surveys Kean Menendez
Oct 11-Oct 25-Nov 42% 44%
Sep-Oct 11-Oct 25 41% 41%
Aug-Sep-Oct 41% 40%
Jul-Aug-Sep 41% 41%
Jun-Jul-Aug 41% 43%
May-Jun-Jul 39% 42%
Apr-May-Jun 41% 40%
Mar-Apr-May 41% 37%
Feb-Mar-Apr 40% 38%
Jan-Feb-Mar 40% 38%
Election 2006: New Jersey Senate
Date Kean Menendez
Nov 1 43% 48%
Oct 25 43% 41%
Oct 11 39% 42%
Sep 21 41% 40%
Aug 28 44% 39%
Jul 25 38% 44%
Jun 21 40% 46%
May 16 40% 37%
Apr 11 43% 36%
Mar 28 41% 39%
Feb 14 36% 39%
Jan 18 42% 35%
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New Jersey Senate: Menendez Now Up by 5
Menendez (D) 48%; Kean (R) 43% 
Democratic Senator Robert Menendez

In the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of New Jersey’s Likely Voters, appointed Democratic Senator Menendez is now leading Republican Tom Kean, Jr. 48% to 43% (see crosstabs).

The survey suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for both candidates. Among Kean voters, just 45% say they’ll be casting a vote for Kean, while an equal percentage say they be voting against Menendez.

Among the incumbent’s supporters, 59% are casting a positive vote for him while 38% are voting against Kean.

This lack of enthusiasm for the candidates, combined with the GOP's national funk, may enable state's Democratic proclivities to carry the incumbent to victory for a term of his own in the Senate. Rasmussen Reports is shifting the race from “Toss-up” to "Leans Democrat" in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Senator Menendez is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 47%. This includes 14% with a “very favorable” opinion of their Senator and 31% with a “very unfavorable” view.

Kean is viewed favorably by 44%, and unfavorably by 51%.

Moreover, on the paramount issue of this election, the war in Iraq, voters are almost evenly divided over which candidate they trust more: 43% say Kean, 42% say Menendez. On the economy, the division is 43% and 43%.

Just 19% of New Jersey voters rate the situation in Iraq as good or excellent. Twenty-two percent (22%) say fair and 58% poor. Forty-four percent (44%) say the economy is in good or excellent shape.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of all voters believe New Jersey is more corrupt than other states; 44% say it's "about the same." Democrats are much more likely to say that the level of corruption is "about the same." Few in any group believe Jersey is "less corrupt."

Both Menendez and Kean have been tarred with charges of corruption and ethical lapses, but it seems more of the tar has been sticking to the incumbent.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


Election 2006

Senate Balance of Power

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 55% Santorum (R) 42%