Survey of 500 Likely Voters
November 1, 2006

Election 2006: Montana Senate

Jon Tester (D) 50%
Conrad Burns (R) 46%
Election 2006: Montana Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average
Surveys Tester Burns
Oct 18-Oct 26-Nov 1 50% 46%
Oct 11-Oct 18-Oct 26 49% 45%
Sep 20-Oct 11-
Oct 18
49% 44%
Sep 13-Sep 20-Oct 50% 43%
Aug-Sep 13-Sep 20 50% 44%
Jul-Aug-Sep 13 50% 44%
May-Jul-Aug 48% 45%
Apr-May-Jul 47% 45%
Mar-Apr-May 46% 45%
Feb-Mar-Apr 45% 45%
Election 2006: Montana Senate
Date Tester Burns
Nov 1 50% 46%
Oct 26 51% 47%
Oct 18 48% 46%
Oct 11 49% 42%
Sep 20 50% 43%
Sep 13 52% 43%
Aug 8 47% 47%
Jul 6 50% 43%
May 11 48% 44%
Apr 11 44% 47%
Mar 14 46% 43%
Feb 7 46% 46%


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Montana Senate: Tester by 4

Tester (D) 50% Burns (R) 46% 

Democrat Jon Tester

Montana offers another Senate race where a Republican who had been closing the gap in the final weeks may be falling a bit short. With only a few days left in the election, Republican Senator Conrad Burns now trails Democrat Jon Tester 50% to 46% (see crosstabs).

Forty-eight percent (48%) are certain they will vote for Tester, 43% are certain they'll pick Burns.

The race now reverts to the "Leans Democrat" column in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Burdened by scandal, Senator Burns has been struggling all year to stay afloat politically. With one exception he has lagged in each of our last nine polls (in August, the race was a tie). The Senator received more money from disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff than any other Congressman, and Tester and other Democrats in the state weren't about to let the electorate forget it.

Still, most Tester supporters (60%) regard their vote as "for Tester" rather than "against Burns" (32%). Similarly, 66% of Burns supporters see their vote as pro-Burns, 32% as anti-Tester.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) view Burns "very unfavorably." He is viewed favorably by only 46%. Tester is viewed favorably by 53%.

Though this race bears some comparison to New Jersey's Senate contest, and political corruption has been a persistent issue in both, Montana voters are much less likely to say their state suffers more political corruption than most other states. Only 4% believe that is true; 54% say the level of corruption is "about the same," and 36% say Montana is less corrupt than others. The issue is deemed very important by 68%.

In New Jersey, a majority of the state’s voters view their state politics as more corrupt than most.

President Bush earns approval from 48% of voters, which is a little higher than he fetches nationally. Forty percent (40%) "strongly disapprove" of the job he's doing as chief executive.

The President recently visited Montana to rally support for Burns.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

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Montana Senate: Tester Holds Slim Lead Over Burns

Virginia Senate: Webb (D) Now Leading Allen (R)

Election 2006