Wisconsin Governor: Doyle (D) by 5
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 20, 2006
March 29, 2006--In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Wisconsin's competitive gubernatorial race, Democrat Jim Doyle, the incumbent, maintains a single-digit lead over his remaining Republican challenger.
Our poll, conducted before Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker announced March 24 that he was quitting the race, shows the governor leading Congressman Mark Green 45% to 40%.
Walker cited fundraising problems and the need for Republicans to unite against Doyle as his reasons for stepping down.
A day before news of Walker's departure from the race, GOP chairman Ken Mehlman publicly labeled Doyle the country's "most vulnerable" incumbent governor. Rick Wiley, who heads up the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said the GOP had not urged Walker to throw in the towel but hailed his decision to do so.
When matched against Green, Doyle wins support from 83% of fellow Democrats, and seems to have little opportunity to expand that base of support. Only 1% of Democrats report they are not sure how they will vote. By contrast, 9% of GOP members and 19% of likely voters unaffiliated with either major party are undecided.
Green can now concentrate all his funds and firepower on unseating the incumbent...unless former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson enters the race. He has declined to counter speculation that he might do so.
A slew of corruption scandals in the state continue to receive play in the news. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of likely voters believe most politicians will change their vote to get a contribution, and only 20% disagree.
The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports election polls in Wisconsin shows Doyle leading 46% to 40%.The polling results have been remarkably stable through the early part of this campaign.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 14, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points at the midpoint with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology).