Illinois Governor: Toss-Up
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 27, 2006
March 31, 2006--Fresh from primary victories, neither the Democratic nominee nor the Republican nominee enjoys a clear advantage in the race for Governor of Illinois.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka leading Democratic Governor Rod R. Blagojevich 43% to 41%. That toss-up represents an apparent tightening of the race. In our late February poll, Blagojevich bested Topinka 42% to 36%. For him, that was an improvement over the January survey, when Topinka led 48% to 37%.
The rolling average of our last three polls confirms the close nature of the race and shows Topinka with a knife-edge 42% to 40% lead. Though the poll numbers seem to gyrate when looked at individually, it's the challenger's support that has varied most. The governor's has ranged much more narrowly, between 37% to 42%ólow and not too auspicious for an incumbent.
Both nominees have weathered charges of corruption from within their own parties en route to their nominations. Neither has solidified support within their own party at this time.
Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 44% of likely voters and unfavorably by 53%, with only 2% Not Sure how to view him. Topinka is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 44%.
Blagojevich wins approval for his job performance as governor from only 39% of Illinois voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove.
Though 45% of Illinois voters believe abortion is morally wrong, just 34% favor a ban on abortion except when the life of the mother is at risk; 55% oppose it. (Such a ban is now being vetted in South Dakota, where it is expected to encounter judicial challenges.)
Sixty-five percent (65%) think most politicians would change their vote for the right contribution. Fifty-three percent (53%) guesstimate that the cost of influencing a governor or senator is $50,000 or less; 7% believe all that's needed is $1,000.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points at the midpoint with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology).