Survey of 500 Likely Voters
August 24, 2006

Election 2006: Arizona Senate
Jon Kyl (R) 52%
Jim Pederson (D) 35%
Election 2006: Arizona Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average
Surveys Kyl Pederson
May-Jul-Aug 52% 35%
Apr-May-Jul 53% 34%
Mar-Apr-May 54% 33%
Jan-Mar-Apr 54% 33%
Election 2006: Arizona Senate
Date Kyl Pederson
Aug 24 52% 35%
Jul 18 53% 34%
May 24 52% 35%
Apr 30 53% 32%
Mar 30 56% 33%
Jan 18 53% 34%
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Arizona Senate: No Concern for Kyl

Incumbent Leads by 17

Republican Senator John Kyl

Incumbent Republican Sen. John Kyl is in cruise control and appears well positioned to win a third term in the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey shows Kyl leading challenger Jim Pederson 52% to 35% (see crosstabs). His lead was 19 in July and the current numbers are repeats of the results from June’s survey.

The Arizona race continues to be listed in the “Republican” column for our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters say they have a “very favorable” opinion of Kyl. Seventeen percent (17%) have a “very unfavorable” view of the senator.

The numbers are less positive for the challenger—17% have a “very favorable,” and 18% a “very unfavorable” view of Pederson.

In a race that was expected to be much closer, Pederson is refusing to go down without a fight.  The former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party has reportedly self-financed his race to the tune of $8.3 million thus far.  He’s used a good portion of those funds to run a series of television ads criticizing Kyl and his Senate colleagues for being influenced by oil companies and other special interests.

Kyl is no slouch on the fundraising scene, either, having raised $11 million.  And every penny counts in a contest that is being fought increasingly over the airwaves.  With both candidates answering each other’s barbs with alternating television ads, the campaigns’ media buys are totaling several hundred thousand dollars per week.

Kyl is seen as politically conservative by 55% of voters—the same percentage that sees his fellow Arizona Sen. John McCain as moderate.  McCain, in the spotlight of late as a potential contender for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, is also seen as moderate by a plurality of the general voting public, which places him very close to the American political center.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters in this survey see Pederson as politically moderate while 33% say he’s liberal.

Kyl must go through the formality of a September 12th primary election before he’s the Republicans’ “official” nominee, but he’s been acting very much the candidate focused on a win in November and a return ticket to D.C. in January 2007.  His primary opponent is write-in candidate Michael Aloisis.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Visit our Election Polls page to see a summary of our latest state-by state polling. Rasmussen Reports is polling competitive Senate and Governors' races at least once a month this year. We also update the President's Job Approval on a daily basis.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


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Election 2006