September 30, 2005--The race to be
Virginia's next Governor is dead even with Republican Jerry Kilgore
and Democrat Tim Kaine each earning 45% of the statewide vote.
Two weeks ago,
Kilgore had a three point advantage over Kaine. In
held a six-point lead.
Independent candidate Russell Potts
continues to attract five percent (5%) of the statewide vote.
Barring a major surprise, he will not be included in the televised
debate scheduled for October 9. Only candidates who have at least
15% support in the polls will be included.
Both major party candidates have added
supporters in the past two weeks--Kaine has gained five percentage
points (from 40% two weeks ago to 45% today). Kilgore has gained
just two percentage points (from 43% to 45%).
Kaine has gained ground primarily by
solidifying support in his own party. He currently is supported by
82% of Democrats up from 67% in the prior survey.
Kilgore and Kaine are competing to
replace incumbent Governor Mark Warner. Warner is exceptionally
popular, earning a 73% favorable rating from Virginia voters.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Virginia
voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as
Governor. Although the state typically leans Republican in national
elections, just 49% of Virginia voters Approve of the way President
Bush is performing his job.
Twenty-one percent (21%) of the state's
voters say they'd be more likely to vote for Tim Kaine if former
Presidential candidate John Kerry campaigned for him. Forty-five
percent (45%) say a Kerry visit would make them less likely to
Even Democrats are reluctant when it
comes to their party's 2004 standard bearer--24% say that if Kerry
campaigned for Kaine, they would be less likely to support Kaine.
Thirty-four percent (34%) of Democrats say a Kerry visit would make
them more supportive.
Voters are evenly divided on the impact
of a Bush campaign visit for Jerry Kilgore-36% say it would make
them more supportive of Kilgore while 37% say the opposite. Not
surprisingly, conservatives would welcome Bush on the campaign trail
for Kilgore while moderates and liberals would not.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm
specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of
public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen
Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely
Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2005. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-
percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. 39% of survey
respondents were Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% unaffiliated (see Methodology)