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  VA: Kilgore 45% Kaine 45%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

September 28, 2005

Election 2005

Virginia Governor

Jerry Kilgore (R) 45%
Tim Kaine (D) 45%
Russell Potts (I) 5%



September 30, 2005--The race to be Virginia's next Governor is dead even with Republican Jerry Kilgore and Democrat Tim Kaine each earning 45% of the statewide vote.

Two weeks ago, Kilgore had a three point advantage over Kaine. In August, Kilgore held a six-point lead.

Independent candidate Russell Potts continues to attract five percent (5%) of the statewide vote. Barring a major surprise, he will not be included in the televised debate scheduled for October 9. Only candidates who have at least 15% support in the polls will be included.

Both major party candidates have added supporters in the past two weeks--Kaine has gained five percentage points (from 40% two weeks ago to 45% today). Kilgore has gained just two percentage points (from 43% to 45%).

Kaine has gained ground primarily by solidifying support in his own party. He currently is supported by 82% of Democrats up from 67% in the prior survey.


Kilgore and Kaine are competing to replace incumbent Governor Mark Warner. Warner is exceptionally popular, earning a 73% favorable rating from Virginia voters.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as Governor. Although the state typically leans Republican in national elections, just 49% of Virginia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of the state's voters say they'd be more likely to vote for Tim Kaine if former Presidential candidate John Kerry campaigned for him. Forty-five percent (45%) say a Kerry visit would make them less likely to support Kaine.

Even Democrats are reluctant when it comes to their party's 2004 standard bearer--24% say that if Kerry campaigned for Kaine, they would be less likely to support Kaine. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Democrats say a Kerry visit would make them more supportive.

Voters are evenly divided on the impact of a Bush campaign visit for Jerry Kilgore-36% say it would make them more supportive of Kilgore while 37% say the opposite. Not surprisingly, conservatives would welcome Bush on the campaign trail for Kilgore while moderates and liberals would not.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2005.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. 39% of survey respondents were Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% unaffiliated (see Methodology)

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