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  VA: Kaine 46% Kilgore 44%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

October 27, 2005

Election 2005

Virginia Governor

Jerry Kilgore (R) 44%
Tim Kaine (D) 46%
Russell Potts (I) 4%



October 28, 2005--For the first time this year, Tim Kaine has moved ahead of Jerry Kilgore in a Rasmussen Reports election poll.

Kaine, the Democrat, now earns 46% of the vote while Kilgore attracts 44% in the race to be Virginia's next Governor. State Senator Russell Potts attracts 4% of the vote, up from 2% a week ago.

While Kaine now has a two point advantage, the race remains too close to call. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.

In the previous Rasmussen Reports election poll, Kilgore had a two percentage point advantage, 46% to 44%. In late September, the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.

This is the third straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.

Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 42% to 41%, over Jerry Kilgore.


Both men now earn more than 80% of the votes from within their own party. Kaine has a 14% advantage among those not affiliated with either major party.

In six of the last eight Rasmussen Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that range, and once a point below.

In the last four Virginia election polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time. However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41% range.

Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by 56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this year's contest in New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed favorably by more than 41% of voters.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as Governor. Fifty-one percent ( 51%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That figure is well above his national Job Approval rating.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2005.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Election 2005

Virginia Governor

  Kilgore Kaine
October 27 44% 46%
October 20 48% 46%
October 11 46% 44%
Sept. 28 45% 45%
Sept 14 43% 40%
August 3 45% 39%
July 12 47% 41%
June 15 46% 40%


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