October 28, 2005--For the first time
this year, Tim Kaine has moved ahead of Jerry Kilgore in a Rasmussen
Reports election poll.
Kaine, the Democrat, now earns 46% of
the vote while Kilgore attracts 44% in the race to be Virginia's
next Governor. State Senator Russell Potts attracts 4% of the vote,
up from 2% a week ago.
While Kaine now has a two point
advantage, the race remains too close to call. The survey's margin
of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of
In the previous Rasmussen Reports election
had a two percentage point advantage, 46% to 44%. In late
the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.
This is the third straight 2005 Virginia
election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners
are those who initially do not express a preference for either major
party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up
Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a
one-point edge, 42% to 41%, over Jerry Kilgore.
Both men now earn more than 80% of the
votes from within their own party. Kaine has a 14% advantage among
those not affiliated with either major party.
In six of the last eight Rasmussen
Reports election polls in Virginia, Jerry Kilgore has attracted
between 44% and 46% of the vote. One he was a point above that
range, and once a point below.
In the last four Virginia election
polls, Kaine has been in that same range (44% to 46%) every time.
However, in the preceding four polls, he was in the 39% to 41%
Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by
56% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 38%. For Kaine, the
numbers are 62% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers
highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this
year's contest in
New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed
favorably by more than 41% of voters.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of Virginia
voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as
Governor. Fifty-one percent ( 51%) of Virginia voters Approve of the way President
Bush is performing his job. That figure is well above his
national Job Approval rating.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm
specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of
public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate
polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to
project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage
point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was
also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had
twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many
as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen
Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely
Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2005. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-
percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.