October 24, 2005--The race to succeed
Mark Warner as Governor of Virginia remains too close to call.
Republican Jerry Kilgore
attracts 48% of the statewide vote while Democrat Tim Kaine earns 46%.
Independent candidate Russell Potts is poised to earn just 2% of the
vote. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5
percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
In the previous Rasmussen Reports election
also had a two percentage point advantage, 46% to 44%. In late
the two leading candidates were tied at 45%.
This is the second 2005 Virginia
election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners
are those who initially do not express a preference for either major
party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up
Without leaners, Jerry Kilgore still has
a two-point edge, 44% to 42%, over Tim Kaine. Without leaners, Potts
is at 4%.
Seventy percent (70%) of the state's
conservative voters support Kilgore. Seventy-five percent (75%) of
liberal voters support Kaine.
Overall, Kilgore is viewed favorably by
54% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 37%. For Kaine, the
numbers are 57% favorable and 34% unfavorable. These numbers
highlight a huge difference between the Virginia election and this
year's contest in
New Jersey. In the New Jersey race, neither candidate is viewed
favorably by more than 41% of voters.
The economy ranks as the number one
issue for 24% of Virginia voters. Twelve percent (12%) say health
care is most important and another 12% say education. Eleven percent
(11%) name taxes and 10% say Immigration.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of Virginia
voters Approve of the way that Warner is performing his duties as
Governor. Although the state typically leans Republican in national
elections, just 48% of Virginia voters Approve of the way President
Bush is performing his job.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm
specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of
public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate
polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to
project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage
point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was
also the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had
twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many
as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen
Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely
Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2005. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-
percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. 39% of survey
respondents were Republican, 35% Democrat, and 26% unaffiliated (see Methodology)