July 22, 2005--The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows that
Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is living up to his reputation as
the most vulnerable incumbent at this point in the 2006 election
cycle. Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr by eleven percentage
points, 52% to 41%.
Casey is viewed favorably by 49% of the
stateís likely voters while 27% have an unfavorable opinion. For
Santorum, 44% say favorable and 43% unfavorable.
Casey earns 85% of the vote from
self-identified liberal voters and 62% from moderates. Santorum
currently attracts 66% of the conservative vote.
Typically, Republicans do better among
married voters. However, at the moment, Santorum attracts 41% of
married voters and 40% from those who are not married.
Among voters who Approve of the job
President Bush is doing, just 70% say they will vote for Santorum.
Early in Election 2004, several Republican candidates had relatively
low levels of support from Bush voters. However, as Election Day
approached, their support from Bush voters increased dramatically.
This phenomenon helped elect Republicans in Oklahoma and Alaska. The
President is significantly more popular in those states than he is
In the Keystone State, the
Presidentís Job Approval is
at 46%, slightly below his national average. Fifty-three
percent (53%) disapprove.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) of those who
disapprove of Bush will vote for Casey.
Looking ahead to Election 2008, 46% of
Pennsylvania voters say they will vote for the Democratís nominee
while 40% plan on voting for the GOP candidate.
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public opinion polling information.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports,
has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was
conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2005. The margin of
sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a
95% level of confidence (see Methodology)