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  PA Senate 2006: Casey 52% Santorum 41%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

July 20, 2005

Election 2006

Pennsylvania Senator

Rick Santorum (R) 41%
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 52%
Other 4%



July 22, 2005--The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows that Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is living up to his reputation as the most vulnerable incumbent at this point in the 2006 election cycle. Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr by eleven percentage points, 52% to 41%.

Casey is viewed favorably by 49% of the stateís likely voters while 27% have an unfavorable opinion. For Santorum, 44% say favorable and 43% unfavorable.

Casey earns 85% of the vote from self-identified liberal voters and 62% from moderates. Santorum currently attracts 66% of the conservative vote.

Typically, Republicans do better among married voters. However, at the moment, Santorum attracts 41% of married voters and 40% from those who are not married.

Among voters who Approve of the job President Bush is doing, just 70% say they will vote for Santorum. Early in Election 2004, several Republican candidates had relatively low levels of support from Bush voters. However, as Election Day approached, their support from Bush voters increased dramatically. This phenomenon helped elect Republicans in Oklahoma and Alaska. The President is significantly more popular in those states than he is in Pennsylvania.

In the Keystone State, the Presidentís Job Approval is at 46%, slightly below his national average.  Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of those who disapprove of Bush will vote for Casey.

Looking ahead to Election 2008, 46% of Pennsylvania voters say they will vote for the Democratís nominee while 40% plan on voting for the GOP candidate.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

Our publications provide real-time information on consumer confidence, investor confidence, employment data, the political situation, and other topics of value and interest.

During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2005.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology)

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