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  Missouri Senate 2006: Talent 46% McCaskill 46%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

September 1, 2005

Election 2006

Missouri Senator

Jim Talent (R) 46%
Claire McCaskill (D) 46%
Other 2%



September 6, 2005--Republican Senator Jim Talent is tied with his Democrat Claire McCaskill in the first Rasmussen Reports poll for this Election 2006 match-up. This early election poll finds both candidates attracting 46% of the vote.

Talent narrowly won his Senate seat four years ago by defeating Jean Carnahan. Carnahan had been appointed to hold the seat on an interim basis after her husband died in a plane crash.

McCaskill currently serves as State Auditor.

Support for each candidate is closely correlated to perceptions of President George W. Bush. Among those who Strongly Approve of the President's job performance, Talent leads 91% to 7%. As for those who Strongly Disapprove, McCaskill leads 81% to 9%.

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Talent leads among men while McCaskill leads among women.

Generationally, McCaskill does best among those under 30 and over 65. Talent is strongest among 30-somethings.

As is the case nationally, there is a huge "Marriage Gap" in the Missouri polling data. Talent leads by 13 percentage points among those who are married (54% to 41%). However, McCaskill leads by 23 percentage points among those who are not married (55% to 32%).

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Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2005.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology)

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