July 19, 2005--Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin leads Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele by five
percentage points in the race to become Maryland's next United
The latest Rasmussen Reports Election
2006 survey finds that Cardin attracts 45% of the vote to 40% for
Steele. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for someone else and
11% are undecided.
Steele, however, leads former
Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume by seven points, 47% to
40%. The survey margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage
points with a 95% level of confidence.
The race for
Governor in Maryland is even
It is unusual for a Republican to
be so competitive in such a solidly "Blue" state such as Maryland.
Election 2004 confirmed
that geography rules in contests for the U.S. Senate.
Eight Senate seats changed from
one party to the other. Six of the eight were Republican victories
in Red States. One was a Democratic victory in the very Blue State
of Illinois. The exception that proves the rule was Colorado where
Attorney General Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Republican
businessman Pete Coors. A Republican victory in Maryland would be
even more of a surprise.
Racial divides are front and center in
this match-up. With Mfume as the nominee, 66% of Maryland's
African-American vote will go for the Democrat. However, Republicans
lead among white voters 54% to 31%.
With Cardin atop the Democratic ticket,
the white vote is evenly divided but Democrats attract just 51% of
the African-American vote. In that mach-up, Steele attracts 30% of
the African-American vote.
Steele is viewed favorably by 49% of
Maryland voters and unfavorably by 27%. Cardin attracts favorable
reviews from 35% while 21% take the opposite view. Significantly, a
plurality (44%) have no opinion of Cardin at this time.
For Mfume, the numbers are 38% favorable
and 35% unfavorable.
The election of 46 year old Steele could
have lasting impact on the Senate. Only 9 of the 55 Republican
Senators today represent Blue States. However, one-third (16 of 44)
of all Democratic Senators are from Red States carried by George W.
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Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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The telephone survey of 500 Likely
Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2005. The
margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points
with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology)