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  MD Governor 2006: Ehrlich Faces Tough Re-election Bid

Survey of 500 Likely Voters

July 18, 2005

Election 2006

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R) 46%
Martin O'Malley (D) 41%
Other 3%


Election 2006

Maryland Governor

Bob Ehrlich (R) 43%
Doug Duncan (D) 44%
Other 4%



July 21, 2005--Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich won his current job by narrowly defeating Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002. Early indications are that he will face another tough election battle in 2006, regardless of who the Democrats nominate as the challenger.

A Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey finds that Ehrlich leads Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley by five percentage points at this time. Ehrlich attracts 46% of the vote to 41% for O'Malley.

The race is even closer between the Republican incumbent and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan. Duncan earns 44% of the vote in that match-up to 43% for Ehrlich.

Ehrlich has a solid lead among male voters over either Democrat. However, both Democrats lead Ehrlich among women.

The margin of sampling error for the full survey sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Other data shows that Maryland may also enjoy a very competitive U.S. Senate race in 2006.

Ehrlich is seen as politically conservative by 50% of voters and moderate by another 30%.

O'Malley is seen as liberal by 45% and moderate by 29%. For Duncan, the numbers are 29% liberal and 31% moderate.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Maryland voters consider themselves politically conservative. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they are moderate and 24% liberal.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2005.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see Methodology)

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