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Just 28% Expect Improvement in Iraq Over Next 6 Months

Partisan Divide Remains Huge

Survey of 1,000 Adults

January 4-5, 2005 

Situation in Iraq Over Next Six Months

Better 28%
Worse 50%


Will January Elections in Iraq Be Held?

Very Likely


Somewhat Likely


Not Very Likely

Not at All Likely 6%


In Long Term, Will U.S. Mission in Iraq be Judged...

Success 39%
Failure 43%


US Safer Since 9/11?

Yes 41%
No 43%




January 6, 2005--Just 28% of Americans believe that the situation in Iraq will get better during the first half of 2005. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 adults found that 50% take the opposite view and believe things it will get worse.

However, two-thirds of Americans (67%) believe that the elections in Iraq will be held as scheduled this month. Twenty-five percent (25%) say that elections are "not very likely" or "not at all likely.

Both questions, found a strong partisan divide. Republicans, by a 51% to 30% margin, believe that the situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. Democrats, by an even larger 72% to 11% margin, believe things will get worse. As for those not affiliated with either party, 17% say better and 49% worse.

As for the question of Iraqi elections, 81% say they are likely to be held on time. That view is shared by 62% of unaffiliated voters and 56% of Democrats.

Last fall, 33% of voters said that things were getting better in Iraq while 43% said they were getting worse.

As documented in The GOP Generation, the polarizing national security issues were the dominant issue of Election 2004. 

However, that report notes that, ironically, The President’s policy in Iraq and the larger War on Terror will begin to unify the nation [over the next couple of years]... If the President’s policies are working, a solid majority of voters will rally behind them. If his policies are not working, a solid majority of voters will rally against them. Either way, we will be moving towards unity.”

The recent survey, however, found that the move towards unity has not yet begun. By a 70% to 18% margin, Republicans believe that the US mission in Iraq will ultimately be considered a success. By a similar 70% to 13% margin, Democrats say it will be judged a failure. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Republicans, by a 70% to 19% margin, believe the USA is safer today than it was before 9/11. Democrats, by a 63% to 20% margin say the nation is not safer.

A separate survey found that Republicans tend to believe that America's best days are yet to come. Democrats tend to believe they have come and gone.

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This survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 4-5, 2005.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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