January 6, 2005--Just 28% of Americans
believe that the situation in Iraq will get better during the first
half of 2005. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 adults found that
take the opposite view and believe things it will get worse.
However, two-thirds of Americans (67%)
believe that the elections in Iraq will be held as scheduled this
month. Twenty-five percent (25%) say that elections are "not very
likely" or "not at all likely.
Both questions, found a strong partisan
divide. Republicans, by a 51% to 30% margin, believe that the
situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. Democrats,
by an even larger 72% to 11% margin, believe things will get worse.
As for those not affiliated with either party, 17% say better and
As for the question of Iraqi elections,
81% say they are likely to be held on time. That view is shared by
62% of unaffiliated voters and 56% of Democrats.
33% of voters said that things were getting better in Iraq while 43%
said they were getting worse.
As documented in
Generation, the polarizing national security issues
were the dominant
issue of Election 2004.
However, that report notes that,
“The President’s policy in
Iraq and the
larger War on Terror will begin to unify the nation [over the
next couple of years]... If the President’s policies are working, a
solid majority of voters will rally behind them. If his policies are
not working, a solid majority of voters will rally against them.
Either way, we will be moving towards unity.”
The recent survey,
however, found that the move towards unity has not yet begun. By a
70% to 18% margin, Republicans believe that the US mission in Iraq
will ultimately be considered a success. By a similar 70% to 13%
margin, Democrats say it will be judged a failure. Unaffiliated
voters are evenly divided.
Republicans, by a
70% to 19% margin, believe the USA is safer today than it was before
9/11. Democrats, by a 63% to 20% margin say the nation is not safer.
survey found that Republicans tend to believe that America's
best days are yet to come. Democrats tend to believe they have come
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This survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen
Reports January 4-5, 2005. The margin of sampling error
is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.