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31% Expect Improvement in Iraq Over Next 6 Months

Partisan Divide Remains Huge

Survey of 1,000 Adults

January 24-25, 2005 

Situation in Iraq Over Next Six Months

Better 31%
Worse 45%


Will Elections in Iraq Be Held This Weekend?

Very Likely


Somewhat Likely


Not Very Likely

Not at All Likely 3%


In Long Term, Will U.S. Mission in Iraq be Judged...

Success 38%
Failure 46%


US Safer Since 9/11?

Yes 41%
No 44%



January 27, 2005--Americans are getting a bit less pessimistic about the situation in Iraq.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Americans now believe that the situation in Iraq will get better over the next six months. That’s up from 28% earlier in the month.  A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 adults also found that 45% take the opposite view and believe things will get worse over the next six months. That’s down from 50% in our previous survey.

The most recent survey of 1,000 adults was completed on Monday and Tuesday, January 24 and 25, 2005. Demographic details are available for Premium Members.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Americans believe that the elections in Iraq will be held as scheduled this weekend. That’s up from 67% during the first week of January. Just 15% say that elections are "not very likely" or "not at all likely (down from 25% who held that pessimistic view in the prior survey).

Both questions, found a strong partisan divide. Republicans, by a 54% to 22% margin, believe that the situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. Democrats, by an even larger 66% to 11% margin, believe things will get worse. As for those not affiliated with either party, 27% say better and 45% worse.

As for the question of Iraqi elections, 86% of Republicans say they are likely to be held on time. That view is shared by 76% of unaffiliated voters and 66% of Democrats.

Last fall, 33% of voters said that things were getting better in Iraq while 43% said they were getting worse.

As documented in The GOP Generation, the polarizing national security issues dominated Election 2004. 

The report notes that, ironically, The President’s policy in Iraq and the larger War on Terror will begin to unify the nation [over the next couple of years]... If the President’s policies are working, a solid majority of voters will rally behind them. If his policies are not working, a solid majority of voters will rally against them. Either way, we will be moving towards unity.”

The recent survey, however, found that the move towards unity has not yet begun. By a 69% to 18% margin, Republicans believe that the US mission in Iraq will ultimately be considered a success. By a similar 74% to 13% margin, Democrats say it will be judged a failure.

Republicans, by a 68% to 21% margin, believe the USA is safer today than it was before 9/11. Democrats, by a 62% to 18% margin say the nation is not safer.

A separate survey found that Republicans tend to believe that America's best days are yet to come. Democrats tend to believe they have come and gone.

Rasmussen Reports recently released a 130 page special report on Election 2004. The GOP Generation documents how and why Republicans have the potential to control both the House and the Senate for at least a generation. It is "not the result of a single election… President Bush is in a position to close a sale with American voters that was first proposed by Ronald Reagan a generation ago...” Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist says that “The GOP Generation captures with clarity the dynamics that are propelling this Republican era to staggering new heights.”

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This survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 24-25, 2005.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

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