February 2, 2005--Following
Sunday's voting in Iraq, Americans
are a bit more hopeful about prospects for that troubled nation.
Thirty-seven percent (37%)
of Americans now believe that the situation in Iraq will get better over
the next six months. That’s up from 31% just
before the election and from 28%
a month ago.
Just as significantly, the number who
believe the situation in Iraq will get worse has fallen from
January to 40% today.
Forty percent (40%) of Americans now
believe the U.S. mission in Iraq will be a success while 41% say it will
ultimately be deemed a failure. Just before the Iraqi elections, 38% said
the mission would be a success and 46% said it would be a failure.
The most recent survey of
1,000 adults was completed on Monday and Tuesday, January 31 and February
1, 2005. Those are the two nights following the Iraqi elections and
preceding the President's State of the Union Address.
Demographic details are available for
On all data, there is a
strong partisan divide.
Republicans, by a 64% to
17% margin, believe that
the situation in Iraq will improve over the next six months. Democrats, by
an even larger 55% to 16% margin, believe things will get worse. As for
those not affiliated with either party, 26% say better and 50% worse.
Last fall, 33% of voters said that things were getting better in Iraq
while 43% said they were getting worse.
As documented in
The GOP Generation, the polarizing national security issues
dominated Election 2004.
The report notes
that, ironically, “The President’s policy
in Iraq and the larger War on Terror will begin to unify the
nation [over the next couple of years]... If the President’s
policies are working, a solid majority of voters will rally behind them.
If his policies are not working, a solid majority of voters will rally
against them. Either way, we will be moving towards unity.”
The recent survey,
however, found that the move towards unity has not yet begun. By a 68% to
18% margin, Republicans believe that the US mission in Iraq will
ultimately be considered a success. The GOP view on that point changed
little from our prior survey.
a 60% to 20% margin, say the mission in Iraq will ultimately be
judged a failure. Prior to the voting over the weekend, 74% of
Democrats said the mission would be a failure.
A separate survey found that Republicans tend to believe that
America's best days are yet to come. Democrats tend to believe they have
come and gone.
Reports recently released a 130 page special report on Election
GOP Generation documents how and why Republicans have the
potential to control both the House and the Senate for at least a
generation. It is "not the result of a single election… President
Bush is in a position to close a sale with American voters that was
first proposed by Ronald Reagan a generation ago...” Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist says that “The GOP Generation
captures with clarity the dynamics that are propelling this
Republican era to staggering new heights.”
To keep up with our latest releases, be sure to visit
the Rasmussen Reports
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This survey of 1,000 Adults was
conducted by Rasmussen Reports January 31-February 1, 2005. The margin of
sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of