| Election 2008: Liberal Dem 40% Conservative GOP 39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Survey of 1,000 Adults June 8-9, 2005
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June 10, 2005--Election 2008 will be a toss-up if Democrats nominate a liberal candidate and Republicans nominate a conservative. A Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 40% of Americans say they would vote for a liberal Democrat and 39% for a Conservative Republican. The survey also found that if both parties nominate a moderate candidate, the Democrats have a 42% to 38% advantage. Obviously, events over the next three years could change these figures in either direction, but the survey generally shows an electorate that remains evenly split between the two parties. The survey documents the conventional wisdom concerning the political center. If Democrats nominate a moderate candidate and the GOP selects a conservative, the survey shows that Democrats would have a nine-point advantage. On the other hand, if Democrats nominate a liberal candidate and Republicans pick a moderate, the GOP gains an 8-point advantage. As you would expect, most of the changes took place among voters who are not affiliated with either major party. [More Below]
Obviously, there are many different definitions of liberal, moderate, and conservative. In Election 2004, the perceptions of both John Kerry and George W. Bush shifted significantly as the campaign wore on. In the end, Kerry was viewed by most Americans as politically liberal. However, most liberal voters did not see him that way. Bush had a stronger base partly because he was able to convince most conservatives that he was one of them. This year, Senator Hillary Clinton is making a much publicized move to the political center. She has made some progress, but a solid plurality still view the former First Lady as politically liberal. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Our publications provide real-time information on consumer confidence, investor confidence, employment data, the political situation, and other topics of value and interest. During Election 2004, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
The national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 8-9, 2005. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology) |
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